Advisories

000
WTPA44 PHFO 061449
TCDCP4
 
Hurricane Lowell Discussion Number  42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP122026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sun Sep 06 2026
 
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft completed a mission 
in Lowell a few hours ago and measured peak 700-mb flight-level 
winds of 114 kt, which typically equates to an intensity of 100-105 
kt. However, dropsonde data from the plane also indicated that the 
central pressure (943 mb) was a bit lower than previously 
estimated. For that reason, Lowell's currently intensity is held at 
110 kt, which is also very close to the latest UW-CIMSS DPRINT and 
SATCON estimates.

Lowell is in the midst of its anticipated sharp turn, and the 
current motion is north-northwestward (335/5 kt). The steering 
continues to be dominated by a cutoff mid-/upper-level low located 
about 350 n mi north-northeast of Hawaii, which is forecast to 
move west-southwestward and cause Lowell to accelerate toward the 
north and north-northeast through Monday night. The track guidance 
is tightly packed through that period, although some of the 
better-performing models (HCCA and GDMI) lie along the eastern 
edge of the envelope. That required an additional eastward nudge in 
the official forecast, bringing Lowell's center near or over the 
island of Nihoa in 48 hours and about 100 n mi west of Kauai 
County. After the center passes the Hawaiian Islands, model guidance 
is in good agreement that Lowell will turn westward by early Friday, 
but there is some disagreement on the sharpness of that turn.
 
Vertical shear is expected to remain low for another 12 hours, so 
fluctuations in intensity will still be possible through this 
afternoon. South-southwesterly shear is forecast to increase to 
strong levels by tonight, which should induce a gradual weakening 
trend while Lowell is passing the Hawaiian Islands. However, even 
with the weakening, Lowell is not expected to change much in size, 
and tropical storm conditions are forecast to spread across Kauai 
and Niihau by Monday afternoon, necessitating the issuance of a 
tropical storm warning. Lowell is forecast to weaken to a tropical 
storm by early Wednesday after passing the Hawaiian Islands, and 
continued weakening is expected through the end of the week due to 
continued shear, marginal sea surface temperatures, and dry 
mid-level air.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Lowell is forecast to pass west of Kauai County late Monday into
early Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Kauai
County, including Kauai and Niihau, where tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin Monday afternoon and continue through Tuesday 
morning. Strong wind gusts will be possible atop mountains and on 
windward and leeward slopes.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Lowell will begin to impact the 
Hawaiian Islands today and continue through early this week. Periods 
of heavy rain may produce significant flash flooding and mudslides, 
especially across Kauai County and portions of the Big Island.
 
3. Large swells from Lowell are expected to produce life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions across portions of the Hawaiian
Islands during the next several days. Surf along exposed portions
of Kauai County could also produce coastal flooding and inundation
of low-lying areas Monday through Monday night.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 14.7N 163.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 15.6N 163.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 17.5N 163.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 20.0N 162.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 23.0N 161.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  09/0000Z 25.4N 162.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 26.9N 162.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  10/1200Z 27.9N 166.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  11/1200Z 27.7N 170.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg