Advisories

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 111452
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Simon Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026
900 AM CST Sun Oct 11 2026
 
...CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE SIMON NEAR THE COAST OF
WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 105.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico of discontinued to Tropical Storm Watch
from East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to El Roblito
* Las Islas Marias
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Simon was located
near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 105.3 West. Simon is moving
toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue over the next day or two. On the
forecast track, Simon is expected to be very near the coast of
west-central Mexico later today and remain close to the coast on
Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Simon is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. While some weakening could occur, Simon is 
still forecast to move very near the coast of west-central Mexico as 
a major hurricane today. More significant weakening could occur if 
the core of Simon moves fully onshore or interacts with the higher 
terrain.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are likely beginning in the southern part
of the Hurricane Warning, with hurricane conditions spreading
northward later today into Monday. 
 
RAINFALL: Simon is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 
8 to 16 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated 
maximum storm totals of 30 inches possible across portions of 
Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday.  This rainfall will 
produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas 
of steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf.
 
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected along the immediate 
coast near and to the east of where the center approaches landfall. 
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and 
destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Papin