Stormlio

Advisories

Simon

63 advisories on record

NHC Advisory 038 Oct 16, 08:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 037 Oct 16, 02:57 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 036 Oct 16, 08:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 035 Oct 16, 02:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 034 Oct 15, 08:43 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 033 Oct 15, 02:43 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 032 Oct 15, 08:39 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 031 Oct 15, 02:32 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 030 Oct 14, 08:55 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 029 Oct 14, 02:49 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 028A Oct 14, 11:30 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 028 Oct 14, 08:46 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 027A Oct 14, 05:37 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 027 Oct 14, 02:36 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 026A Oct 13, 11:34 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 026 Oct 13, 08:59 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 025A Oct 13, 05:34 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 025 Oct 13, 02:59 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 024A Oct 13, 11:37 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 024 Oct 13, 08:42 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 023A Oct 13, 05:37 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 023 Oct 13, 02:55 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 022A Oct 12, 11:33 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 022 Oct 12, 08:53 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 021A Oct 12, 05:37 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 021 Oct 12, 02:59 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 020A Oct 12, 11:41 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 020 Oct 12, 08:54 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 019A Oct 12, 05:57 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 019 Oct 12, 02:51 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 018A Oct 11, 11:53 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 018 Oct 11, 09:12 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 017A Oct 11, 05:41 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 017 Oct 11, 02:58 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 016A Oct 11, 11:44 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 016 Oct 11, 08:59 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 015A Oct 11, 05:59 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 015 Oct 11, 02:33 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 014A Oct 10, 11:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 014 Oct 10, 08:59 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 013A Oct 10, 05:58 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 013 Oct 10, 02:58 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 012A Oct 10, 11:53 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 012 Oct 10, 08:57 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 011A Oct 10, 05:46 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 011 Oct 10, 02:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 010A Oct 9, 11:47 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 010 Oct 9, 08:46 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 009A Oct 9, 05:40 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 009 Oct 9, 02:47 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 008A Oct 9, 11:38 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 008 Oct 9, 08:46 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 007A Oct 9, 05:51 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 007 Oct 9, 03:21 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 006A Oct 8, 11:32 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 006 Oct 8, 08:32 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 005A Oct 8, 05:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 005 Oct 8, 02:37 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 004A Oct 8, 11:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 004 Oct 8, 09:29 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 003 Oct 8, 02:34 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 002 Oct 7, 08:39 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 001 Oct 7, 02:58 PM UTC 
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 071458
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026
900 AM CST Wed Oct 07 2026
 
Visible satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance south of
Mexico has continued to become better organized.  Curved convective
bands are evolving over the northern and western quadrants of the
system.  The low-level circulation, although a bit elongated from
southwest to northeast, is significantly well-defined to designate
the formation of a tropical cyclone.  The advisory intensity is set
at 30 kt in accordance with a Dvorak estimate of T2.0 from TAFB.
 
The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 300/7 kt.  The cyclone
is expected to continue on a generally west-northwestward track
for the next couple of days, along the southern side of a weak
mid-level ridge.  In 48 hours, the system is likely to turn toward
the northwest in response to a 500 mb trough approaching the Baja
California peninsula.  Thereafter, the cyclone should move
generally northward on the southeastern side of the trough.  The
official track forecast is on the right side of the guidance
envelope.
 
Since the cyclone will be in an environment of low vertical wind
shear, abundant low- to mid-level moisture, and very warm sea
surface temperatures, steady strengthening is forecast this week.
The system is likely to become a hurricane in 48 hours or so.  The
official forecast is close to the intensity model consensus.
 
Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should closely
monitor the progress of this system.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 14.1N 100.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 14.6N 102.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 15.0N 103.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 15.3N 104.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 15.8N 104.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  10/0000Z 16.4N 105.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 17.2N 105.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 19.7N 105.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 22.0N 106.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch