Stormlio

Advisories

Simon

63 advisories on record

NHC Advisory 038 Oct 16, 08:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 037 Oct 16, 02:57 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 036 Oct 16, 08:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 035 Oct 16, 02:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 034 Oct 15, 08:43 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 033 Oct 15, 02:43 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 032 Oct 15, 08:39 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 031 Oct 15, 02:32 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 030 Oct 14, 08:55 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 029 Oct 14, 02:49 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 028A Oct 14, 11:30 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 028 Oct 14, 08:46 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 027A Oct 14, 05:37 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 027 Oct 14, 02:36 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 026A Oct 13, 11:34 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 026 Oct 13, 08:59 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 025A Oct 13, 05:34 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 025 Oct 13, 02:59 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 024A Oct 13, 11:37 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 024 Oct 13, 08:42 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 023A Oct 13, 05:37 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 023 Oct 13, 02:55 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 022A Oct 12, 11:33 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 022 Oct 12, 08:53 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 021A Oct 12, 05:37 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 021 Oct 12, 02:59 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 020A Oct 12, 11:41 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 020 Oct 12, 08:54 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 019A Oct 12, 05:57 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 019 Oct 12, 02:51 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 018A Oct 11, 11:53 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 018 Oct 11, 09:12 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 017A Oct 11, 05:41 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 017 Oct 11, 02:58 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 016A Oct 11, 11:44 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 016 Oct 11, 08:59 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 015A Oct 11, 05:59 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 015 Oct 11, 02:33 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 014A Oct 10, 11:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 014 Oct 10, 08:59 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 013A Oct 10, 05:58 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 013 Oct 10, 02:58 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 012A Oct 10, 11:53 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 012 Oct 10, 08:57 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 011A Oct 10, 05:46 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 011 Oct 10, 02:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 010A Oct 9, 11:47 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 010 Oct 9, 08:46 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 009A Oct 9, 05:40 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 009 Oct 9, 02:47 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 008A Oct 9, 11:38 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 008 Oct 9, 08:46 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 007A Oct 9, 05:51 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 007 Oct 9, 03:21 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 006A Oct 8, 11:32 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 006 Oct 8, 08:32 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 005A Oct 8, 05:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 005 Oct 8, 02:37 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 004A Oct 8, 11:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 004 Oct 8, 09:29 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 003 Oct 8, 02:34 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 002 Oct 7, 08:39 PM UTC 
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 072039
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Simon Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026
300 PM CST Wed Oct 07 2026

The system continues to gradually become better organized on 
satellite imagery with convective banding features becoming more 
prominent.  The latest subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB 
had a T-number of 2.5, corresponding to an intensity of 35 kt.  On 
this basis, the cyclone is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Simon 
for this advisory.  The storm has developed upper-level anticyclonic 
outflow over all quadrants of the circulation.

ASCAT-B scatterometer data suggested that the center of the cyclone 
is a little north of the previous track, but the overall motion 
still appears to be toward the west-northwest, or about 300/7 kt.  
Simon is likely to continue this general west-northwestward motion 
for the next day or so, to the south of a weak mid-level ridge.  By 
Friday, the system should turn northwestward and then northward 
ahead of a 500 mb trough approaching Baja California. In 3-5 days, 
the cyclone should move generally northward between a mid-level 
anticyclone and the trough near Baja California.  The official 
forecast track remains on the right side of the guidance envelope, 
and is close to the Google DeepMind ensemble mean.
 
For the next few days, Simon is expected to remain within an 
environment of low vertical wind shear and moist low- to mid-level 
air, while moving over waters of high oceanic heat content.  These 
factors should result in a significant increase in intensity this 
week, and the system is likely to strengthen into a hurricane, 
and then into a major hurricane later this week.  The NHC intensity 
forecast is a little above the intensity model consensus, IVCN.

Key Messages:

1. Simon is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Thursday 
night and approach the west-central coast of Mexico as a major 
hurricane on Saturday. 

2. There is a risk of dangerous wind and storm surge impacts along 
portions of the west-central coast of Mexico over the weekend and 
into early next week, and watches could be required by tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of 
southwestern Mexico later this week and into the weekend. This 
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain.

4. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central 
coast of Mexico through the weekend.  These swells are likely to 
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please 
consult products from your local weather office.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/2100Z 15.5N 101.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/0600Z 15.9N 102.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  08/1800Z 16.3N 104.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  09/0600Z 16.6N 104.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  09/1800Z 17.0N 105.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  10/0600Z 17.8N 105.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  10/1800Z 18.9N 105.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  11/1800Z 21.2N 105.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  12/1800Z 23.6N 106.7W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NHC Advisory 001 Oct 7, 02:58 PM UTC