Stormlio

Advisories

Simon

63 advisories on record

NHC Advisory 038 Oct 16, 08:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 037 Oct 16, 02:57 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 036 Oct 16, 08:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 035 Oct 16, 02:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 034 Oct 15, 08:43 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 033 Oct 15, 02:43 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 032 Oct 15, 08:39 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 031 Oct 15, 02:32 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 030 Oct 14, 08:55 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 029 Oct 14, 02:49 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 028A Oct 14, 11:30 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 028 Oct 14, 08:46 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 027A Oct 14, 05:37 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 027 Oct 14, 02:36 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 026A Oct 13, 11:34 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 026 Oct 13, 08:59 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 025A Oct 13, 05:34 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 025 Oct 13, 02:59 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 024A Oct 13, 11:37 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 024 Oct 13, 08:42 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 023A Oct 13, 05:37 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 023 Oct 13, 02:55 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 022A Oct 12, 11:33 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 022 Oct 12, 08:53 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 021A Oct 12, 05:37 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 021 Oct 12, 02:59 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 020A Oct 12, 11:41 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 020 Oct 12, 08:54 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 019A Oct 12, 05:57 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 019 Oct 12, 02:51 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 018A Oct 11, 11:53 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 018 Oct 11, 09:12 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 017A Oct 11, 05:41 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 017 Oct 11, 02:58 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 016A Oct 11, 11:44 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 016 Oct 11, 08:59 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 015A Oct 11, 05:59 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 015 Oct 11, 02:33 AM UTC 
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 110233
TCDEP5
 
Hurricane Simon Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026
900 PM CST Sat Oct 10 2026
 
The compact core of very dangerous Hurricane Simon is inching toward
west-central Mexico. The northern eyewall is only about 30 n mi off
the coast, and conditions are expected to quickly deteriorate later
tonight. The major hurricane appears to be getting stronger and has
a distinct and small eye, surrounded by symmetric and intense deep
convection. The initial intensity is nudged up to 135 kt, near the
upper end of the latest satellite estimates. The Air Force Hurricane
Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system in a few hours, and
the data they collect will be very helpful to better assess Simon's
intensity and structure.
 
Simon has been crawling northward, with the latest initial motion
estimated to be 360/4 kt. A slightly faster northward or
north-northwestward motion is expected later tonight, and the major
hurricane will either make landfall or skirt the coast of
west-central Mexico on Sunday. The models remain inconsistent in
showing whether landfall will occur or not. Regardless, significant
or catastrophic wind, surge, and rainfall appears likely over
portions of west-central Mexico later tonight and Sunday.
 
Fluctuations in strength are expected until the core of Simon
reaches the coast. Rapid weakening is forecast once the system
interacts with land, and it could weaken at a much faster pace if it
moves to the east of the official track. Due to the complexity of
how much land Simon will interacts with, the intensity forecast is
of low confidence.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge impacts are
likely along a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a
Hurricane Warning is in effect from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of
southwestern Mexico through this weekend. This rainfall will produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
3. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central
coast of Mexico over the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 18.2N 104.8W  135 KT 155 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 19.1N 105.0W  135 KT 155 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 24H  12/0000Z 20.1N 105.3W  100 KT 115 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 36H  12/1200Z 21.1N 105.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 48H  13/0000Z 22.0N 105.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 60H  13/1200Z 23.0N 105.9W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Advisory 014A Oct 10, 11:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 014 Oct 10, 08:59 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 013A Oct 10, 05:58 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 013 Oct 10, 02:58 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 012A Oct 10, 11:53 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 012 Oct 10, 08:57 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 011A Oct 10, 05:46 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 011 Oct 10, 02:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 010A Oct 9, 11:47 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 010 Oct 9, 08:46 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 009A Oct 9, 05:40 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 009 Oct 9, 02:47 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 008A Oct 9, 11:38 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 008 Oct 9, 08:46 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 007A Oct 9, 05:51 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 007 Oct 9, 03:21 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 006A Oct 8, 11:32 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 006 Oct 8, 08:32 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 005A Oct 8, 05:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 005 Oct 8, 02:37 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 004A Oct 8, 11:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 004 Oct 8, 09:29 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 003 Oct 8, 02:34 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 002 Oct 7, 08:39 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 001 Oct 7, 02:58 PM UTC