Stormlio

Advisories

Simon

63 advisories on record

NHC Advisory 038 Oct 16, 08:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 037 Oct 16, 02:57 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 036 Oct 16, 08:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 035 Oct 16, 02:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 034 Oct 15, 08:43 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 033 Oct 15, 02:43 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 032 Oct 15, 08:39 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 031 Oct 15, 02:32 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 030 Oct 14, 08:55 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 029 Oct 14, 02:49 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 028A Oct 14, 11:30 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 028 Oct 14, 08:46 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 027A Oct 14, 05:37 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 027 Oct 14, 02:36 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 026A Oct 13, 11:34 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 026 Oct 13, 08:59 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 025A Oct 13, 05:34 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 025 Oct 13, 02:59 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 024A Oct 13, 11:37 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 024 Oct 13, 08:42 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 023A Oct 13, 05:37 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 023 Oct 13, 02:55 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 022A Oct 12, 11:33 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 022 Oct 12, 08:53 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 021A Oct 12, 05:37 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 021 Oct 12, 02:59 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 020A Oct 12, 11:41 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 020 Oct 12, 08:54 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 019A Oct 12, 05:57 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 019 Oct 12, 02:51 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 018A Oct 11, 11:53 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 018 Oct 11, 09:12 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 017A Oct 11, 05:41 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 017 Oct 11, 02:58 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 016A Oct 11, 11:44 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 016 Oct 11, 08:59 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 015A Oct 11, 05:59 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 015 Oct 11, 02:33 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 014A Oct 10, 11:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 014 Oct 10, 08:59 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 013A Oct 10, 05:58 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 013 Oct 10, 02:58 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 012A Oct 10, 11:53 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 012 Oct 10, 08:57 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 011A Oct 10, 05:46 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 011 Oct 10, 02:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 010A Oct 9, 11:47 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 010 Oct 9, 08:46 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 009A Oct 9, 05:40 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 009 Oct 9, 02:47 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 008A Oct 9, 11:38 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 008 Oct 9, 08:46 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 007A Oct 9, 05:51 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 007 Oct 9, 03:21 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 006A Oct 8, 11:32 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 006 Oct 8, 08:32 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 005A Oct 8, 05:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 005 Oct 8, 02:37 PM UTC 
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 081437
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Simon Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026
900 AM CST Thu Oct 08 2026
 
Simon continues to steadily become better organized. Satellite and 
microwave images indicate that the storm has a compact inner core 
and much larger rainbands surrounding it. The outer bands on the 
northeast side of the circulation are moving across coastal areas of 
southwestern Mexico, likely bringing heavy rains and gusty winds 
there. The latest satellite intensity estimates range from 45 to 55 
kt, and the initial intensity is set at the high end of the 
estimates at 55 kt.
 
The tropical storm is moving slowly westward at about 5 kt, steered
by a weak mid-level ridge to its north. A continued slow west to
west-northwest motion is expected through tonight as that ridge
remains in place. However, a sharp turn to the north is forecast on
Friday when the ridge weakens and shifts eastward, in response to an
approaching mid- to upper-level trough. Although the models
generally agree on the large-scale steering pattern evolution,
there are very important differences in where and when the system 
makes that turn. Most of the AI models, including GFSAI, ECAI, and 
GDMI show the turn occurring well east of the physics-based models. 
Since the physics-based models have often had a westward bias in 
this region, the NHC track forecast has been nudged eastward to be 
in better agreement with the latest AI guidance. This forecast 
brings the core of the system inland over southwestern and 
west-central Mexico Saturday night or early Sunday.
 
Environmental conditions are expected to be quite conducive for
strengthening, including low wind shear, very warm waters, and high
moisture. Based on these favorable conditions and the compact 
inner core structure, rapid intensification is forecast, and Simon 
is expected to become a hurricane later today and a very dangerous 
category 4 hurricane before it reaches the coast of Mexico. This 
forecast lies near the high end of the guidance, in best agreement 
with the HCCA model. 
 
Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a
Hurricane Watch for portions of west-central Mexico.

Key Messages:
 
1. Simon is expected to strengthen to a hurricane later today and 
approach the west-central coast of Mexico as a major hurricane on 
Saturday and Saturday night.

2. The risk of life-threatening wind and storm surge impacts is 
increasing for portions of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a 
Hurricane Watch is now in effect from Manzanillo to Punta Mita. 
Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by 
Saturday.

3. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of 
southwestern Mexico through this weekend. This rainfall may produce 
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of 
steep terrain.

4. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central 
coast of Mexico through the weekend.  These swells are likely to 
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please 
consult products from your local weather office.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 15.4N 103.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 15.5N 104.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 16.1N 104.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 16.9N 105.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 17.6N 105.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  11/0000Z 18.7N 105.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 19.7N 105.1W  115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND
 96H  12/1200Z 22.2N 105.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
120H  13/1200Z 25.1N 106.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Advisory 004A Oct 8, 11:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 004 Oct 8, 09:29 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 003 Oct 8, 02:34 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 002 Oct 7, 08:39 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 001 Oct 7, 02:58 PM UTC