Stormlio

Advisories

Simon

63 advisories on record

NHC Advisory 038 Oct 16, 08:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 037 Oct 16, 02:57 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 036 Oct 16, 08:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 035 Oct 16, 02:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 034 Oct 15, 08:43 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 033 Oct 15, 02:43 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 032 Oct 15, 08:39 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 031 Oct 15, 02:32 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 030 Oct 14, 08:55 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 029 Oct 14, 02:49 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 028A Oct 14, 11:30 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 028 Oct 14, 08:46 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 027A Oct 14, 05:37 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 027 Oct 14, 02:36 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 026A Oct 13, 11:34 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 026 Oct 13, 08:59 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 025A Oct 13, 05:34 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 025 Oct 13, 02:59 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 024A Oct 13, 11:37 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 024 Oct 13, 08:42 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 023A Oct 13, 05:37 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 023 Oct 13, 02:55 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 022A Oct 12, 11:33 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 022 Oct 12, 08:53 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 021A Oct 12, 05:37 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 021 Oct 12, 02:59 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 020A Oct 12, 11:41 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 020 Oct 12, 08:54 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 019A Oct 12, 05:57 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 019 Oct 12, 02:51 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 018A Oct 11, 11:53 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 018 Oct 11, 09:12 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 017A Oct 11, 05:41 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 017 Oct 11, 02:58 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 016A Oct 11, 11:44 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 016 Oct 11, 08:59 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 015A Oct 11, 05:59 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 015 Oct 11, 02:33 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 014A Oct 10, 11:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 014 Oct 10, 08:59 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 013A Oct 10, 05:58 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 013 Oct 10, 02:58 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 012A Oct 10, 11:53 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 012 Oct 10, 08:57 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 011A Oct 10, 05:46 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 011 Oct 10, 02:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 010A Oct 9, 11:47 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 010 Oct 9, 08:46 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 009A Oct 9, 05:40 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 009 Oct 9, 02:47 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 008A Oct 9, 11:38 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 008 Oct 9, 08:46 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 007A Oct 9, 05:51 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 007 Oct 9, 03:21 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 006A Oct 8, 11:32 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 006 Oct 8, 08:32 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 005A Oct 8, 05:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 005 Oct 8, 02:37 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 004A Oct 8, 11:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 004 Oct 8, 09:29 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 003 Oct 8, 02:34 AM UTC 
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 080234
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Simon Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026
900 PM CST Wed Oct 07 2026
 
Simon has continued to become better organized on satellite imagery 
over the past 6 hours with a large area of deep convection and 
improved curved banding.  A recent WSF-M microwave pass also shows 
improved curved banding structure.  The latest subjective Dvorak 
classification from TAFB was 3.0/45 kt, and the initial intensity 
has been raised to 45 kt accordingly, and this could be 
conservative.
 
Environmental conditions are quite favorable for significant
intensification.  The SHIPS Rapid Intensity Index indicates greater
than a 50 percent chance of 55 kt of strengthening over the next   
48 h.  Most of the hurricane regional models, as well as HCCA and 
GDMI show significant intensification over the next couple of days, 
and the NHC intensity forecast has been increased accordingly.  The 
NHC forecast now indicates a 110 kt intensity at 60 and 72 h, and 
this is at the high end of the model suite, in good agreement with 
the HCCA model.
 
The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 290 degrees at 8 kt. 
Simon is likely to continue this general west-northwestward motion 
for the next day or so, to the south of a weak mid-level ridge.  By 
Friday, the system should turn northwestward and then northward 
ahead of a 500 mb trough approaching Baja California. In 3-5 days, 
the cyclone should move generally northward between a mid-level 
anticyclone and the trough near Baja California.  The official 
forecast track has been shifted a bit to the left from 12-60 hours, 
but is nearly on top of the previous track from days 3 to 5, and is 
quite similar to the latest HFIP corrected consensus approach 
(HCCA).  The forecast takes Simon toward the coast of west-central 
Mexico as a dangerous major hurricane in a few days.  There is a 
fair amount of spread in the guidance, and that is important to note 
because Simon is forecast to be moving nearly parallel to the 
coastline in about 72 hours when it nears west-central Mexico.  A 
track farther west would keep Simon over water longer, but a track 
farther east would mean a sooner landfall.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Simon is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Thursday 
night and approach the west-central coast of Mexico as a major 
hurricane on Saturday. There is a risk of dangerous wind and storm 
surge impacts along portions of this coast over the weekend and into 
early next week, and watches could be required overnight into early 
Thursday.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of
southwestern Mexico later this week and into the weekend. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
3. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central
coast of Mexico through the weekend.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 15.6N 102.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 15.8N 103.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 16.1N 104.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 16.4N 105.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 16.9N 105.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 60H  10/1200Z 17.8N 105.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 18.9N 105.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 21.6N 105.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 24.2N 106.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen
NHC Advisory 002 Oct 7, 08:39 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 001 Oct 7, 02:58 PM UTC