Stormlio

Advisories

Simon

63 advisories on record

NHC Advisory 038 Oct 16, 08:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 037 Oct 16, 02:57 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 036 Oct 16, 08:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 035 Oct 16, 02:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 034 Oct 15, 08:43 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 033 Oct 15, 02:43 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 032 Oct 15, 08:39 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 031 Oct 15, 02:32 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 030 Oct 14, 08:55 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 029 Oct 14, 02:49 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 028A Oct 14, 11:30 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 028 Oct 14, 08:46 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 027A Oct 14, 05:37 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 027 Oct 14, 02:36 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 026A Oct 13, 11:34 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 026 Oct 13, 08:59 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 025A Oct 13, 05:34 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 025 Oct 13, 02:59 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 024A Oct 13, 11:37 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 024 Oct 13, 08:42 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 023A Oct 13, 05:37 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 023 Oct 13, 02:55 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 022A Oct 12, 11:33 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 022 Oct 12, 08:53 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 021A Oct 12, 05:37 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 021 Oct 12, 02:59 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 020A Oct 12, 11:41 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 020 Oct 12, 08:54 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 019A Oct 12, 05:57 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 019 Oct 12, 02:51 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 018A Oct 11, 11:53 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 018 Oct 11, 09:12 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 017A Oct 11, 05:41 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 017 Oct 11, 02:58 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 016A Oct 11, 11:44 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 016 Oct 11, 08:59 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 015A Oct 11, 05:59 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 015 Oct 11, 02:33 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 014A Oct 10, 11:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 014 Oct 10, 08:59 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 013A Oct 10, 05:58 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 013 Oct 10, 02:58 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 012A Oct 10, 11:53 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 012 Oct 10, 08:57 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 011A Oct 10, 05:46 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 011 Oct 10, 02:40 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 010A Oct 9, 11:47 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 010 Oct 9, 08:46 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 009A Oct 9, 05:40 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 009 Oct 9, 02:47 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 008A Oct 9, 11:38 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 008 Oct 9, 08:46 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 007A Oct 9, 05:51 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 007 Oct 9, 03:21 AM UTC 
000
WTPZ45 KNHC 090321 CCA
TCDEP5
 
Hurricane Simon Discussion Number   7...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026
900 PM CST Thu Oct 08 2026

Corrected malformed non-unicode character in third paragraph.

Simon has become a hurricane this evening.  The satellite
presentation consists of a developing small, intense, central dense
overcast with -82C cold cloud tops, and a primary curved band
wrapping into the center from the northwest part of the cyclone. The
TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimate is 65 kt, as well as the
initial intensity for this advisory.
 
Simon's wind radii were adjusted based on a 1920 UTC OSCAT-3
overpass.
 
All conducive ocean heat content, dynamic, and thermodynamic
environmental contributions indicate that Simon should quickly
intensify during the next 24-36 hrs.  Subsequently, the SHIPS RI
index shows a near 70 percent that the cyclone intensity will
increase by 30 kt in 24 hrs.  This seems quite reasonable given that
Simon's inner core is rather small, indicative of a recent AMSR3 MI
pass.  Accordingly, the official intensity forecast will continue to
predict an RI event on Friday, with Simon becoming a category 4
hurricane while heading toward the coast of west-central Mexico.
The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, is close
to the HFIP-HCCA, and now shows a peak intensity of 120 kt on
Saturday morning.
 
Simon's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
295/5 kt.  A turn to the northwest is expected by early Friday. A
northward motion is forecast by early Saturday while high pressure
over central Mexico weakens and shifts eastward, in response to an
amplifying mid-tropospheric trough approaching Baja California. The
HiRes global models that have been to the left of the forecast track
outliers have trended eastward during the past 24 hours, and now
align more with the skilled HCCA and GDMI aids.  Therefore,
confidence in the forecast track is increasing.  The official
forecast is slightly to the left of the previous advisory and a
little slower to conform to the HCCA model, which includes the
Google DeepMind TC ensemble mean.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Simon is expected to approach the west-central coast of Mexico
as a major hurricane on Saturday.
 
2. Life-threatening wind and storm surge impacts are expected along
a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a Hurricane
Warning is in effect from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita.
Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by
late Friday.
 
3. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of
southwestern Mexico through this weekend. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
4. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central
coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 15.6N 104.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 16.1N 105.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 16.9N 105.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 17.8N 105.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 19.0N 105.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  11/1200Z 20.4N 105.3W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 72H  12/0000Z 21.6N 105.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  13/0000Z 23.3N 105.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
NHC Advisory 006A Oct 8, 11:32 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 006 Oct 8, 08:32 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 005A Oct 8, 05:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 005 Oct 8, 02:37 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 004A Oct 8, 11:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 004 Oct 8, 09:29 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 003 Oct 8, 02:34 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 002 Oct 7, 08:39 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 001 Oct 7, 02:58 PM UTC