Advisories
Vance34 advisories on record
NHC Advisory 034 Oct 29, 08:31 PM UTC
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 292031 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Vance Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 200 PM MST Thu Oct 29 2026 Vance is weakening again. Satellite imagery shows the convective structure of Vance has degraded since the previous advisory, as deep convection has now shifted about 95 n mi northeast of Vance's center. This structure is clear evidence of strong vertical wind shear affecting the cyclone. An earlier 1559 UTC Metop-B scatterometer pass showed an elongated system with a peak reliable wind of 29 kt. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was T2.0/30 kt, aligning well with objective aids from UW-CIMSS ranging from 28 to 37 kt. Given the recent degradation in satellite presentation and the latest intensity estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt. The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/6 kt. This general motion at about the same speed is expected until Vance degenerates into a trough of low pressure over the southern Gulf of California by this evening. The new NHC forecast is largely unchanged from the previous one, lying close to the HCCA and TVCN aids. The primary hazard associated with Vance remains to be heavy rainfall, with high rain rates likely in areas of deep convection across north-central Mexico. Vance continues to feel effects of a hostile environment, characterized by strong vertical wind shear of over 50 kt and increasingly dry mid-level relative humidity values around 40 to 50 percent. As a result, the cyclone is soon expected to become a remnant low, with most models showing dissipation shortly thereafter over the southern Gulf of California. Key Messages: 1. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Vance will impact portions of western Mexico during the next day or two. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides across central and southern Sinaloa, far southwestern Durango, and far northwestern Nayarit, especially in areas along steep terrain. 2. Moisture carried northeastward from Vance will produce heavy rain across portions of the U.S. Southern Plains and New Mexico today into Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 22.3N 108.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 23.3N 108.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pierce/Papin
NHC Advisory 033 Oct 29, 02:32 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 032 Oct 29, 08:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 031 Oct 29, 02:33 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 030 Oct 28, 08:33 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 029 Oct 28, 02:33 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 028 Oct 28, 08:33 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 027 Oct 28, 02:35 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 026 Oct 27, 08:51 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 025 Oct 27, 02:41 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 024 Oct 27, 08:49 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 023 Oct 27, 02:31 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 022 Oct 26, 08:34 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 021 Oct 26, 02:34 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 020 Oct 26, 08:38 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 019 Oct 26, 02:37 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 018 Oct 25, 08:35 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 017 Oct 25, 02:59 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 016 Oct 25, 08:38 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 015 Oct 25, 02:45 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 014 Oct 24, 08:40 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 013 Oct 24, 02:54 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 012 Oct 24, 08:38 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 011 Oct 24, 03:38 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 010 Oct 23, 08:40 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 009 Oct 23, 02:43 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 008 Oct 23, 09:00 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 007 Oct 23, 02:39 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 006 Oct 22, 08:37 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 005 Oct 22, 02:48 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 004 Oct 22, 08:48 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 003 Oct 22, 02:58 AM UTC
NHC Advisory 002 Oct 21, 08:33 PM UTC
NHC Advisory 001 Oct 21, 02:37 PM UTC