Advisories

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 290232
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Vance Advisory Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
800 PM MST Wed Oct 28 2026
 
...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS NEAR VANCE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 108.1W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM WNW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests along the west-central and northwestern coasts of Mexico
and the southern Baja California Peninsula should monitor the
progress of Vance.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Vance
was located near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 108.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20
km/h). A turn to the north, followed by a decrease in forward
speed, is expected over the next 24 hours.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slight weakening is forecast to occur during the next day or so, and
Vance is expected to become post-tropical within the next 24 hours,
dissipating shortly thereafter.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). 
Recently there was a ocean drifter buoy that reported a minimum 
pressure of 1002 mb (29.59 inches) as Vance moved over its 
location. 
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Vance is expected to produce 2 to 4
inches of rain across central and southern Sinaloa, far southwestern
Durango, and far northwestern Nayarit, with isolated higher totals
of 7 inches possible over central and southern Sinaloa. This
rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
along steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Vance,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Vance will affect coastal portions of
southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southern
portion of the Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Evans/Papin