Advisories

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 261433
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vance Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
900 AM CST Mon Oct 26 2026
 
...VANCE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND LIKELY TO WEAKEN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 105.7W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Vance.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vance was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 105.7 West. Vance is
moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). This motion 
is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a turn 
to the northwest on Tuesday and north on Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Vance is expected to produce 2 to 4
inches of rain, with isolated higher totals of 7 inches possible,
across southern Sinaloa, southwest Durango and coastal sections of
Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima and Michoacan.  This rainfall may produce
flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Vance,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Vance will affect portions of the coast of
southern, southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen