Advisories

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 281432
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Vance Advisory Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
800 AM MST Wed Oct 28 2026
 
...VANCE REMAINS A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL STORM...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 109.2W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests along the west-central and northwestern coasts of Mexico
and the southern Baja California Peninsula should monitor the
progress of Vance.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vance was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 109.2 West. Vance is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn 
toward the north and north-northeast is expected later today and 
tonight, with the center passing to the west of Islas Marias 
overnight. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today, followed by gradual 
weakening tonight through Friday. Vance is expected to become a 
post-tropical remnant low on Thursday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center in the eastern semicircle.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Vance is expected to produce 2 to 4
inches of rain across central and southern Sinaloa, far southwestern
Durango, and far northwestern Nayarit, with isolated higher totals
of 7 inches possible over central and southern Sinaloa. This
rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas
along steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Vance,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Vance will affect coastal portions of
southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southern
portion of the Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart