Advisories

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 182042
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026
200 PM MST Sun Oct 18 2026

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Trudy 
this afternoon found maximum 700 mb flight-level winds of 95 kt in 
the northeast eyewall, with a dropsonde in that area suggesting 
surface winds of about 85 kt. The minimum central pressure was near 
974 mb. Thus, the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt.  During 
the last hour or so, the hurricane's cloud pattern has started to 
lose organization, and this is likely a sign of the forecast 
increasing shear and the upcoming weakening trend.
 
The initial motion northwestward at a slower forward speed or 325/5 
kt. A turn toward the west-northwest at an even slower forward 
speed is forecast as Trudy shears apart vertically and becomes 
steered by the lighter low- to mid-level flow. The new forecast 
track is similar to the previous track and lies near the center of 
the guidance envelope. On the forecast track, the hurricane will 
move away from southwest and west-central Mexico this afternoon and 
then move slowly south of Baja California Sur on Monday and Tuesday.

Trudy is starting to encounter increasing southwesterly shear and a 
drier and more stable airmass. The dynamical intensity guidance 
forecasts this combination to cause rapid weakening starting near 
the 12 h point at the latest, and the intensity forecast follows 
the trend of this guidance. The new forecast follows the previous 
forecast in showing Trudy degenerating to a post-tropical cyclone 
by 60 hours and dissipating in 3 or 4 days. Both of these could 
occur sooner than currently predicted.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Although tropical storm conditions are moving away from the 
Mexican coast, gusts to tropical storm-force are possible this 
afternoon and evening over portions of the coast of west-central 
Mexico and the Islas Marias.
 
2. Coastal flooding due to storm surge should subside this 
afternoon and tonight.
 
3. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will continue to impact the 
southwest Mexican coast in Jalisco through tonight. This rainfall 
may produce areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas 
along steep terrain.
 
4. Large swells will continue to affect the coast of southwestern
Mexico and west-central Mexico during the next two to three days, 
causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/2100Z 19.5N 107.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 19.9N 107.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 20.1N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 20.3N 108.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  20/1800Z 20.7N 109.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  21/0600Z 21.4N 109.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/1800Z 21.9N 110.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven