Advisories

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 162041
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026
300 PM CST Fri Oct 16 2026

After the last advisory was issued, the eye of Trudy disappeared and 
WFSM microwave data indicated that the central convective structure 
had decayed. In addition, a synthetic aperture radar overpass near 
12Z showed maximum winds of around 80 kt. When an Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft reached the storm between 18-19Z, it found 
a central pressure near 982 mb and maximum 700-mb flight-level winds 
of 76 kt. Based on this and satellite intensity estimates, the 
initial intensity has been reduced to 75 kt. The reasons for this 
weakening are speculative, but it one possibility is that the 
slow-moving hurricane has upwelled cold water underneath it as it 
crossed the paths of Polo and Rachel.

The initial motion is a somewhat erratic 330/4 kt. A gradual turn 
toward the northwest is likely during the next 12 hours or so as a 
weak low-level to mid-level ridge builds over eastern Mexico. This 
motion should continue through about 60 hours, with the center
passing near or possibly over the coast of west-central Mexico at 
about the 48-hour point. After that time, a weakening Trudy should 
be steered more by low-level flow, which should steer it generally 
west-northwestward. The new forecast track is near or just to the 
west of the previous track, and it lies a little to the right of 
the center of the guidance envelope.

Trudy's forecast track takes it into an area of deeper warm water, 
which in theory could cause the hurricane to re-intensify during 
the next 24 h or so. However, there still may be a tongue of dry 
air wrapping around the central core, and as the cyclone gets 
close to the coast of Mexico land interaction becomes a negative 
factor. Some of the guidance shows a little re-intensification, 
while some of it shows continued weakening. This part of the 
intensity forecast will include modest intensification during the 
first 24 h.  After 48 h, Trudy should encounter strong shear and a 
dry air mass, and this combination should produce steady weakening. 
The global models that keep the center offshore forecast the system 
to stop producing convection between 96-120 h, and the intensity 
forecast calls for the system to become a remnant low at that time. 
The new intensity forecast has major reductions in intensity 
compared to the previous forecast.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. While Trudy is no longer forecast to be a major hurricane when 
it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico 
this weekend, it will still bring an increasing risk of storm surge, 
damaging winds, and flooding rain. Hurricane Warnings and Watches, 
as well as Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches, are currently in 
effect for portions of the coast, and additional watches and 
warnings will likely be required tonight.
 
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest
Mexican coast between Guerrero and Jalisco through the weekend. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides by the
weekend along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacn,
Colima, and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain.
 
3. Large swells are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern
Mexico and will spread northward through the weekend, causing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 14.8N 102.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 15.5N 103.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 16.9N 104.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 18.5N 105.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 19.7N 105.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  19/0600Z 20.5N 106.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 20.9N 107.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 21.5N 108.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  21/1800Z 22.1N 109.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Beven