Advisories

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 172054
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Trudy Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026
300 PM CST Sat Oct 17 2026

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported that Trudy has 
a 38 n mi wide eye open to the southwest. The maximum 700-mb flight 
level winds were 95 kt in the northwest eyewall, and the minimum 
central pressure is near 976 mb. Based on these data the initial 
intensity is increased to 85 kt. The aircraft also reported that 
the center was a bit west of where satellite imagery suggests it is, 
possibly due to a tilted vortex, and the initial position has been 
nudged westward.
 
The hurricane continues moving northwestward or 320-325 degrees/9 
kt. A continued northwestward to possibly north-northwestward 
motion is expected during the next 24-36 h as a weak low- to 
mid-level ridge builds over eastern Mexico. This motion would bring 
the center of Trudy very close to the coast of west-central
Mexico tonight and Sunday. Thereafter, as Trudy weakens and becomes 
steered mainly by low-level flow, a turn toward the west-northwest 
is expected, taking the cyclone away from the coast. The new track
forecast is adjusted westward based on the more westward initial 
position.

Conditions appear conducive for a little more strengthening through 
tonight, although moderate wind shear will likely limit how much 
strengthening can occur. Based on this, the intensity forecast 
calls for a peak intensity of 90 kt in 12 h.  After about 18 h, 
increasing southwesterly shear and decreasing mid-level moisture 
near the cyclone are likely to cause steady to rapid weakening even 
when the center would be moving away from the coast of Mexico. This 
part of the intensity forecast had been nudged downward to better 
match the pace of the weakening in the guidance. Current 
expectations are that the system will stop producing convection
between 72-96 h and decay to a remnant low pressure, and the global
models forecast the circulation to weaken to a trough by 120 h.

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Trudy is forecast to strengthen as it moves near the coast of 
southwestern and west-central Mexico tonight and Sunday. Damaging 
hurricane-force winds are likely within the hurricane warning area.

2. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by damaging waves is likely 
in areas of onshore winds within the warning areas. 
 
3. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest 
Mexican coast between Guerrero and Nayarit through the weekend. 
This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides 
along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacn, Colima, 
and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep terrain.
 
4. Large swells are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern
Mexico and will spread northward through the weekend, causing
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/2100Z 17.5N 105.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 18.6N 105.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 19.8N 106.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 20.7N 107.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 21.0N 107.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  20/0600Z 21.2N 108.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 21.5N 108.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  21/1800Z 22.2N 109.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven