Advisories

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 170553
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Trudy Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026
1200 AM CST Sat Oct 17 2026
 
...TRUDY HOLDING STEADY...
...TRUDY FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL
COAST OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 103.1W
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Manzanillo northward to Cabo Corrientes
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from south of Manzanillo to Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from south of Manzanillo to Zihuatanejo
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas
* Las Islas Marias
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in southwestern and west-central Mexico should
continue to monitor the progress of Trudy. Additional watches or
warnings will likely be required today.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Trudy was located 
near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 103.1 West. Trudy is moving 
toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the 
northwest at a faster forward speed is expected today, and this 
general motion is forecast to continue through Sunday. On the 
forecast track, the center of Trudy will approach the coast of 
southwestern and west-central Mexico today and pass near the coast 
tonight into Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Some strengthening is possible today, followed by weakening 
beginning by Sunday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Trudy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area by tonight, with tropical storm conditions spreading across the
area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the
Tropical Storm Warning area today. Hurricane conditions are possible
in the Hurricane Watch area by late today. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by Sunday.
 
RAINFALL: Through the weekend, Trudy is expected to produce 4 to 8
inches with isolated higher totals around 15 inches along and near
the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacn, Colima and Jalisco. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides,
especially in areas along steep terrain.
 
Elsewhere, Trudys outer bands are expected to produce 2 to 4 inch
with isolated higher totals around 6 inches along the southwest
Mexican coast in Guerrero and Nayarit. This rainfall may result in
localized flash flooding through the weekend, especially in areas
along steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Trudy,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf.
 
STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas
of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward toward west-central
Mexico through the weekend. These swells will cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs