Advisories

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 150234
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Trudy Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212026
900 PM CST Wed Oct 14 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Trudy has become better organized 
over the past several hours, with an expanding central dense 
overcast and a fragmented convective band wrapping around the 
northern portion of the circulation. A 2305 UTC GMI microwave image 
also revealed improving inner-core organization, with a curved 
convective band beginning to wrap around the center. The latest 
subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB was T4.0/65 kt, while 
objective estimates have generally been in the 50 to 60 kt range. 
Based on these estimates and the improving satellite presentation, 
the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt.

The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 310/7 kt. This general 
motion is expected to continue into Thursday as Trudy moves along 
the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge extending across central 
Mexico. Thereafter, a gradual turn toward the north-northwest and 
possibly north is anticipated as the ridge weakens in response to an 
amplifying mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of America. This 
steering pattern is expected to bring Trudy very close to the coast 
of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend. Between 72 and 
96 h, Trudy is forecast to move northwestward roughly parallel to 
the coast from near Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes, before turning 
west-northwestward away from the coast early next week as the ridge 
begins to build back to the north. Some interaction with Tropical 
Storm Simon, a compact tropical cyclone located several hundred 
miles to the northwest, could further complicate the steering 
pattern. Considerable track uncertainty remains, particularly during 
days 4 and 5, when the guidance exhibits a significant amount of 
cross-track spread. The latest NHC track forecast is very close to 
the previous prediction through 96 h, but is farther north at day 5 
as Trudy turns west-northwestward away from the coast of Mexico. The 
forecast lies close to the HCCA and GDMI consensus aids.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for significant 
strengthening during the next couple of days, with low vertical wind 
shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and a plenty of deep moisture 
surrounding Trudy. The improving inner-core organization noted in 
recent microwave imagery also suggests that Trudy could be poised to 
undergo a period of rapid intensification. In fact, the latest SHIPS 
rapid intensification guidance indicates a strong likelihood of a 
30-kt increase in maximum winds during the next 24 h, more than four 
times the climatological mean. Although Trudy could briefly 
encounter lower ocean heat content associated with the wakes of 
previous tropical cyclones, oceanic conditions are forecast to 
become more favorable thereafter. The NHC intensity forecast calls 
for rapid intensification during the next 24 h, followed by 
additional strengthening to major hurricane intensity by Friday. 
Beyond 60 h, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and the 
entrainment of drier mid-level air are expected to induce weakening. 
The NHC intensity forecast remains above the guidance envelope 
during the next few days, then lies near the upper end of the 
guidance envelope thereafter.

Trudy is forecast to approach the coast of southwestern and 
west-central Mexico as a major hurricane this weekend. Given the 
uncertainty in the track forecast and the potential for significant 
impacts, interests along the coast of southwestern and west-central 
Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Trudy and be prepared 
to implement their hurricane plans.

Key Messages:

1. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the
coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico late this week and
into the weekend. There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and
storm surge impacts, and watches could be required for a portion of
these areas by early Thursday.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Trudy will impact the southwest
Mexican coast between Guerrero and Jalisco through the weekend. This
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides by the
weekend across Colima and Jalisco, especially in areas along steep
terrain.

3. Large swells will begin to affect portions of the coast of 
southwestern Mexico late this week and continue through the weekend. 
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/0300Z 12.4N 100.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 12.9N 101.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 13.6N 101.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 14.5N 102.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 15.3N 102.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  17/1200Z 16.4N 103.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 17.6N 104.3W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 19.7N 106.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 20.1N 107.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs