Advisories

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 270855
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026
200 AM PDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Odalys remains a low-end Category 1 hurricane, but continues to 
rapidly weaken. The system's overall convective structure has 
degenerated into an irregularly shaped central dense overcast, with 
cloud-top temperatures ranging between -65C and -70C just north of 
the center. The latest subjective Dvorak CI number from TAFB was 
4.5/77 kt, but the final T-number was 3.5/55 kt, which aligns better 
with the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS ranging between 
53 and 65 kt, further suggesting Odalys' weakening trend. Based on a 
blend of these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt.  
The ASCAT from around 0435Z still had 57 kt vectors, and given the 
low bias of ASCAT at those wind speeds, this supports keeping 
Odalys a hurricane for this advisory.

The initial motion is estimated to be northward at 360/7 kt. Little 
change has been made to the track reasoning, as Odalys is expected 
to continue northward while a deep-layer trough steers the 
vertically coherent cyclone. Once the system decouples, motion is 
forecast to turn abruptly south-southeastward in 24 to 36 hours 
under the steering influence of a low-level ridge positioned to the 
northwest. The latest track guidance from the HCCA and GDMI ensemble 
consensus aids demonstrates a sharper turn southeastward, and the 
updated NHC track forecast reflects this while closely following the 
previous advisory.

Over the next few days, Odalys will face an increasingly hostile 
environment marked by persistent vertical wind shear, dry 
surrounding air, and significantly cooler ocean temperatures. As a 
result, rapid weakening is expected throughout the forecast period. 
Both the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite models indicate Odalys 
will transition to a post-tropical cyclone as early as 24 hours.
 
Distant moisture from both Hurricanes Odalys and Polo will be
transported into the southwestern United States late this weekend
and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy
rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued
by the Weather Prediction Center for more information.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0900Z 21.9N 123.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 22.4N 123.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 22.6N 122.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  28/1800Z 22.0N 122.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  29/0600Z 21.0N 122.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  29/1800Z 19.9N 122.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0600Z 19.1N 122.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pierce/Hagen