Advisories

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 241453
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026
 
Odalys has strengthened this morning.  The satellite presentation
consists of a -82C Central Dense Overcast (CDO) located over an eye
feature depicted in a 1132 UTC AMSR-3 Microwave color composite
image, and a spiral band wrapping around the surface center from
the northwest.  The initial intensity is increased to 80 kt and is
based on a compromise of subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates.
 
Although moderate deep-layer shear continues to inhibit significant 
strengthening, intensity may fluctuate in the short term.  By the 
weekend, Odalys should encounter increasing southwesterly shear and 
progressively cooler water.  As a result, gradual weakening is 
expected through the forecast period, and Odalys should become a 
post-tropical cyclone early next week.  The NHC intensity forecast 
blends the IVCN multi-model consensus with the skilled HFIP HCCA 
and Google DeepMind aids.
 
Odalys' initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or
060/6 kt, and is being steered by a mid- to upper-tropospheric 
trough situated to its northwest and a subtropical high stretching 
southwestward from Mexico.  A turn toward the northeast is expected 
by Friday, followed by a turn to the north with a reduction in 
forward speed over the weekend. By early next week, the track 
forecast becomes a bit hazy and Hurricane Polo is expected to be 
east of the cyclone and could cause direct interaction complexities 
in the track of Odalys. Consequently, there is quite a bit of 
uncertainty with considerable increasing model guidance spread.  
Further complicating the track forecast is how quickly Odalys 
weakens and becomes vertically challenged while being steered by 
the low-level flow.  The official forecast is adjusted slightly to 
the left of the previous one and lies close to the HCCA and GDMI 
aids.
 
Odalys' wind radii were adjusted based on a 0749 UTC OSCAT-3
scatterometer overpass.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/1500Z 16.4N 125.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 16.9N 124.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 17.8N 123.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 18.6N 123.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 19.6N 123.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  27/0000Z 21.0N 122.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 22.4N 122.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 22.7N 121.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/1200Z 21.4N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts