Advisories

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 262034
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026
200 PM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Odalys continues to quickly weaken this afternoon. On satellite the 
hurricane's structure has evolved into an irregularly shaped central 
dense overcast with evidence of south-southwesterly shear 
undercutting the outflow layer, which is now estimated above 35 kt 
from the latest UW-CIMSS analysis. A WSFM microwave image available 
after the prior advisory also no longer shows an eyewall on the 89 
GHz channel as the storm becomes increasingly tilted downshear with 
height. The 18 UTC TAFB subjective Dvorak estimate is still a CI 
5.0/90 kt, but the objective intensity estimates continue to fall, 
ranging from 63-78 kt. A blend of the data yields an intensity of  
80 kt for this advisory. The shear over the next few days is not 
expected to abate, and the hurricane is already surrounded by 
abundant dry air as it also moves towards cooler sea-surface 
temperatures. Thus, continued rapid weakening is forecasted, and the 
latest forecast still indicates Odalys becoming a post-tropical 
cyclone in 48 h. However, this could occur even sooner than 
forecast, as indicated by the latest simulated satellite forecast 
from both the GFS and ECMWF runs. 

The hurricane is now moving a little east of due north, estimated at 
5 degrees at 6 kt. Not much has changed with the track reasoning, 
with Odalys continuing to move north-northeast while a deep-layer 
trough has the strongest influence on its motion as it remains 
vertically coherent. When the cyclone decouples vertically, this 
motion should abruptly shift to the south-southeast in 24-48 h as 
the now shallow cyclone will be mainly steered by a low-level ridge 
located to its northwest. The latest NHC track forecast is very 
close to the prior one, continuing to favor a blend of the latest 
HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind 
ensemble mean (GDMI) guidance. 

Distant moisture from both Hurricanes Odalys and Polo will be 
transported into the southwestern United States late this weekend 
and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy 
rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued 
by the Weather Prediction Center for more information.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 20.5N 123.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 21.3N 123.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 22.3N 123.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 22.4N 122.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 21.8N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  29/0600Z 20.7N 122.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/1800Z 19.5N 121.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/1800Z 18.2N 122.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin