Weather alerts for the NWS Tallahassee FL forecast area

000
FXUS62 KTAE 281050
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
650 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 539 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Fresh northeast breezes over the Gulf waters will continue to support
  a prolonged period of hazardous marine conditions through about
  Friday morning. 

- Chances for showers and storms increase this weekend,
  particularly on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM & LONG TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Ridging over the eastern US will keep things warm and dry through 
the next few days. It'll still be a tad breezy at times the next 
couple afternoons thanks to a squeeze play from broad high pressure 
to our north and low pressure over the Bahamas. But, this should 
weaken as well through the end of the week. Highs will be in the 
upper 70s to mid 80s, running about 5-7 degrees above average. Lows 
will also noticeably warm up into the 60s area-wide to round out the 
week.

Ridging breaks down and shifts eastward as a shortwave trough moves 
into the Southeast US. There are two rather distinct camps of 
solutions this weekend. The GFS and its ensemble system have a much 
more favorable setup for showers and storms, especially Sunday, with 
a stronger, deeper shortwave. The Euro and its ensemble system are 
much less robust and have generally less rain overall. The chances 
for rain do look to increase slightly Saturday, then much more on 
Sunday, regardless of which model ultimately wins out. The GFS camp 
would result in some potentially heavier rain and maybe a strong 
storm or two, whereas the European camp would be mostly showers. We 
still have several days to refine the details heading into early 
November.

Beyond this weekend, we'll likely have a somewhat more progressive 
pattern setting up with additional rain chances on the way thanks to 
troughing digging into the central and southern Plains. It will 
remain rather warm and muggy by late October/early November 
standards this weekend into early next week as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR today with mid and high-level clouds. Winds pickup late this 
morning out of the northeast generally around 10 kts gusting 15-20
kts at TLH, ECP, and VLD. Winds diminish close to sunset. There is 
sufficient confidence in MVFR cigs at VLD, TLH, and ABY generally
after 06Z. MVFR cigs may reach ECP and DHN after 12Z Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Moderate to fresh northeasterly breezes continue through at least 
Thursday before turning easterly late Friday into the weekend. Small 
Craft Advisories continue for the central and western portions of 
our waters, and this may need to be extended into more of our 
western waters into the weekend. Seas remain around 3 to 6 feet. 
Rain chances will increase this weekend over the waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Northeasterly transport winds will remain around 15-20 mph today, 
and coupled with increasing mixing heights, high dispersions are 
possible in the Florida Big Bend with good dispersions elsewhere. 
Winds will gradually slacken Thursday into Friday, though good 
dispersions will persist. Rain chances hold off until this
weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Rainfall totals this weekend into early next week are forecast to be 
around 1 inch, though localized high end totals of 2 inches are 
possible. However, there is still some uncertainty in these totals 
given current model differences. Regardless, these rainfall amounts 
would not result in any significant flood concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always 
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they 
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   81  64  84  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Panama City   80  63  83  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Dothan        79  57  82  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Albany        79  58  81  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Valdosta      81  62  83  61 /   0   0   0   0 
Cross City    82  67  84  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Apalachicola  79  65  80  66 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Thursday for 
     GMZ752-755-770-772-775.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young