Weather alerts for the NWS Charleston SC forecast area

000
FXUS62 KCHS 281119
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
719 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation section has been updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) A multi-day coastal flooding event will slowly diminish
  through the remainder of this week.
 
- 2) Sustained northeast winds will lead to a High Risk for rip
  currents along our South Carolina and Georgia beaches through
  Thursday.
 
- 3) Dry and warming conditions will continue through the week before
  rain chances increase late weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1: A multi-day coastal flooding event will slowly 
diminish through the remainder of this week.

The full moon was on 10/26, while the lunar perigee will today
leading to a similar astronomical tide as yesterday. Astronomical
tides will begin to trend lower the rest of this week as we move
past the lunar perigee, with the morning/early afternoon high 
tide being the higher of the two tide cycles. Additionally, 
northeasterly winds are expected to gradually ease, especially 
towards the end of this week. This will also cause tidal 
departures to lower. 

Charleston Tide Gauge: Moderate coastal flooding is forecasted
with the Wednesday and Thursday morning high tide cycles,
followed by minor coastal flooding Friday, and maybe even
Saturday. Coastal Flood Advisories will be needed.

Fort Pulaski Tide Gauge: Minor coastal flooding is forecasted
with the Wednesday morning high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory
will be needed.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Sustained northeast winds will maintain a High Risk 
of rip currents along our South Carolina and Georgia beaches through 
Thursday.

The combination of sustained, gusty northeast winds, persistent long-
period swell, and continuous wave action will support dangerous rip 
currents along our beaches. A High Risk for rip currents is in place 
for all area beaches through Thursday, driven by 5+ ft swells every 
8-9 seconds. An enhanced risk will likely continue through Saturday, 
October 31, which marks the end of the 2026 surf season and the 
final routine issuance of the Surf Zone Forecast.


KEY MESSAGE 3: Dry and warming conditions will continue through
the week before rain chances increase late weekend.

High pressure will begin to slowly breakdown and drift over the
Carolinas as we head into the second half of the week. The high
pressure at the surface and the upper- level ridging will yield
a dry forecast through the remainder of the week. Temperatures 
will steadily warm into the weekend, with highs pushing 80 away
from the coastline by Friday. Overnight lows initially in the 
50s will warm into the 60s. 

By the weekend, A rather drastic shift in the synoptic pattern 
is expected this as the high pressure breaks down and a 
shortwave trough aloft pivots across the Southeast/Mid- 
Atlantic states this weekend. Rain/thunderstorm chances will 
increase this weekend and into early next week associated with 
this upper level feature. A couple more systems will likely
arrive by the middle part of next week bringing increased rain
chances through most of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z TAFs: Light north-northeasterly flow should continue this 
morning with VFR conditions prevailing. Some lowered ceilings
have moved into coastal South Carolina this morning but 
confidence is not high enough to support lowered ceilings at 
CHS this morning. Northeasterly winds should increase this 
afternoon with gusts to around 20 knots possible. Expect winds 
to ease back after 20-21Z. Lowered ceilings may arrive early
Thursday morning mainly along and east of I-95. MVFR ceilings
could impact all local TAF sites with some light ground fog west
of I-95 around 12Z Thursday. 

Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty north-northeast winds are expected 
over the weekend at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV, primarily during the 
afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
Wednesday through Thursday: A persistent inland wedge of high 
pressure will maintain elevated northeast winds and seas, with 
little improvement through Thursday night. Small Craft Advisories 
remain in effect for all nearshore waters out 20 nm (excluding 
Charleston Harbor) and the offshore GA waters out 60 nm. Expect 
north-northeast wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt, nearshore seas of 5 to 8 
ft, and offshore seas of 8 to 10 ft (highest across Georgia waters).

Friday through Monday: Conditions will improve markedly on Friday as 
the pressure gradient relaxes, bringing an end to the prolonged 
Small Craft Advisories (all with the exception of the outer GA 
waters). However, improvement will be short-lived. A broad area of 
low pressure developing over the Southeast U.S. will tighten the 
gradient once again over the weekend, driving gusts back up to 25 to 
30 kt and building seas back above 6 ft. Another round of Small 
Craft Advisories could be needed Saturday afternoon through the 
remainder of the weekend and potentially into Monday.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ217-219-239-
     241.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for GAZ217-219-239-
     241.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ148>151.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for SCZ148>151.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ360-362.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ364.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Monday for AMZ384.

&&

$$

Black/BRS