Weather alerts for the NWS Key West FL forecast area

000
FXUS62 KKEY 280833
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
433 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...New MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Major coastal flooding will continue across the Keys during the
  next several tidal cycles. Coastal flooding will gradually 
  decrease later this week, but receding rates may be slow, 
  especially in the Upper Keys.

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for most of the Florida Keys
  marine zones, except Florida Bay, E Hawk, and E Straits. Breezes
  will continue to slacken abruptly from east to west today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
CIMSS products shows the blocky pattern continuing this morning. 
However, the block has transitioned from a omega block to a Rex 
block. A Rex block means high over low pressure. When we look at 
the upper level fields on CIMSS products, we see a high located 
over the Mid-Atlantic region and a low pressure system located 
over central Cuba. At the surface, a large high pressure system 
remains anchored over New England with this ridge extending 
southwestward into the Gulf. In addition, a weak surface low is 
located just to the west of Andros Island early this morning near 
the Cay Sal Bank. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows 
this nicely this morning with a cyclonic motion to the clouds 
swirling around the center. Moisture remains quite high with 
estimated PWATs around 1.7 inches according to GOES 19 Total 
Precipitable Water (TPW). KBYX radar has remained active all 
night, though, any showers are no where near as rigorous as they 
were earlier. Most of the activity is across the western Straits 
currently and most of the activity is sprinkles or even just light
rain. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid 70s and 
dew points are in the lower to mid 70s. The dew points have been 
steadily climbing over the last 24 hours from the upper 60s into 
the lower to mid 70s. It will be starting to feel much more humid 
outside compared to recently.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
The aforementioned weak low west of Andros Island early this 
morning will continue to propagate slowly westward along the 
northern Cuba coastline. This will keep the Keys on the edge of 
the cyclonic circulation which will result in northeast to east 
breezes continuing through the period. With that said, as the low
continues westward, it will push the ribbon of stronger winds 
northward outside of the Florida Keys coastal waters by this 
afternoon resulting in mainly light to gentle breezes throughout. 
Moisture will remain modest with slight chances of showers 
continuing through the period. Due to instability remaining quite 
weak, thunder was not included in the forecast for today and 
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for most of the Florida
Keys coastal waters this morning with the exception of Florida
Bay, eastern Hawk Channel. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution
(SCEC) until seas subside is headlined for the easternmost Straits
this morning. From synopsis, a weak area of low pressure will 
continue to slide westward towards the Keys this morning. This 
will cause breezes to abruptly slacken from east to west. The low 
will slide into the central Gulf and weaken later this week, as 
another high pressure system takes over the pressure field through
the weekend. This will support light to gentle northeast to east 
breezes through Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
MVFR CIGs are expected to continue for much of the morning at 
both EYW and MTH terminals as low level cloud deck between 
1000-1500 ft slowly traverses westward through the area. By the 
time we reach the afternoon, MVFR CIGs should rise to VFR 
conditions for the remainder of the TAF period. Gusty north to 
northeast winds will continue into the morning hours with any 
gusts subsiding by the afternoon. MTH should have gusts dissipate 
shortly after sunrise and EYW by the afternoon. Also, we cannot 
rule out a passing shower today or tonight at either terminal, 
though, this is low confidence and VCSH was not included in the 
TAF.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1957, the daily record low temperature of 60F was
recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back
to 1872. Also, on this day in 1957, the daily record low temperature
of 56F was recorded in Marathon. This is also tied for the coldest
temperature recorded during the month of October. Temperature
records for Marathon date back to June 1950.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  84  78  86  79 /  20  20  20  20 
Marathon  85  77  86  77 /  20  20  20  20 

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ076>078.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GMZ032>035-
     043-044-053>055-073>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...MJV
Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV
Data Acquisition.....MJV

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and X at:
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.x.com/nwskeywest