Weather alerts for the NWS Tampa Bay Ruskin FL forecast area

000
FXUS62 KTBW 281225
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
825 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... 

- Hazardous marine conditions across the coastal waters will
  continue into mid week.

- Breezy areawide with a slight chance of showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
U/L split flow pattern continues along the west coast of the U.S.
with a mean overall U/L trough across the western U.S. and weak 
downstream ridging over the Gulf and southeast U.S. An U/L was 
located just north of the Bahamas, and will lift slowly north 
today and will be absorbed into the main U/L flow over the western
Atlantic Thursday and Friday. A strong northern stream 
disturbance will dig over the Pacific northwest over the next 
several days causing the west coast trough to amplify...which will
induce strong downstream ridging over the Gulf and Florida in the
wake of the exiting U/L low. The building heights over the 
forecast area combined with the increasing large scale subsidence 
will allow temperatures across west central and southwest Florida 
to climb several degrees above climatic normals Thursday through 
Saturday.

A southern stream disturbance will exit the base of the west coast
trough late in the week and will push across the Mississippi 
River valley Saturday/Saturday night, moving slowly over the 
mid Atlantic coast and Florida Sunday and Monday. An associated
frontal boundary will push across the forecast area Sunday and
Sunday night with showers and a few thunderstorms likely. This 
will also decrease heights over the state with daytime 
temperatures dropping back several degrees due to the increasing 
cloudiness/showers, but will still run above climatic normals.

At the surface, a remnant frontal boundary persists across the 
Bahamas and portions of the Florida straits with strong high 
pressure along the eastern seaboard. The tight pressure gradient 
continues between these two systems which is producing gusty 
northeast winds across west central and southwest Florida along 
with the adjacent coastal waters. A chance of showers will develop
this afternoon due to the convergent northeast flow off the 
Atlantic which will continue to advect scattered showers onshore 
the east central/southeast Florida coast which will push inland. 
Any precipitation will be light.

As the U/L low currently north of the Bahamas moves away from the
region over the next couple of days, the gradient will relax a 
bit Thursday and Friday with winds over land subsiding, but will 
still remain elevated over the coastal waters. Over the weekend, 
the surface high will begin to exit the area as the U/L trough 
moves over the state and the associated frontal boundary moves 
across the forecast area. Surface high pressure will build back 
over the region early next week in the wake of the cold front 
with clearing skies and temperatures continuing to run a few 
degrees above climatic normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 822 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

MVFR and IFR CIGS this morning in SW Florida that should burn off
in the next few hours. A few passing showers will be possible in
SW Florida and Lakeland this afternoon. MVFR and IFR CIGS will be
possible again tomorrow morning for much of the area. Winds will
be gusty again out of the north. 

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1205 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
Advisory level winds expected to persist across the waters through
Wednesday night, and possibly continue into Thursday. Winds will 
begin to weaken a bit late Thursday and Thursday night, but are 
expected to remain elevated through the end of the week. The 
gradient will weaken further over the weekend and into next week 
dropping below cautionary levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1205 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026
No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days as
sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity
values well above critical levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  84  73  86  72 /  10  10  20   0 
FMY  88  73  88  73 /  50  10  30  10 
GIF  85  72  88  72 /  40  30  30  10 
SRQ  85  72  87  72 /  20  10  20   0 
BKV  84  71  87  69 /  10  20  30   0 
SPG  82  73  85  73 /  10  10  20   0 

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for Charlotte 
     Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita 
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from 
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters 
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa 
     Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 
     to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 
     to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL 
     out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER... 
DECISION SUPPORT... 
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...