Weather alerts for the NWS Columbia SC forecast area

000
FXUS62 KCAE 281045
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
645 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1. Beautiful weather expected to continue through the end of
  this week. 

- 2. Rain chances are forecast to increase this weekend, with an
  active pattern appearing possible into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message 1: Beautiful weather expected to continue through 
the end of this week. 
 
The persistently beautiful weather we have been experiencing for
a week and a half now is forecast to continue into the end of
this work week. Strong high pressure remains anchored at the
surface to our northeast, funneling drier air into the area
beneath strong subsidence aloft. This is forecast to slowly but
surely shift as the week goes along, with at least the initial
high forecast to shift eastward by Friday. This should be
followed up by another strong surface high moving in this
weekend, but the weather around that will likely be different
that we are experiencing this work week. Moisture is forecast to
slowly but surely increase over the next few days, with slightly
warmer highs and lows expected by the end of this week (its
modest - highs around 80 by Friday and lows in the low to mid
50s). 

Key Message 2: Rain chances are forecast to increase this 
weekend, with an active pattern appearing possible into next 
week. 

It would be difficult to really have weather quieter than what
we have experienced the last week or so. We have seen
persistent, dry high pressure remain entrenched in place across
the eastern and southeastern CONUS in this period, ensuring the
weather is benign and the temperatures are pristine. Confidence
is increasing in active weather beginning again this weekend,
with uncertainty extending well into next week. A complex upper
level pattern is forecast to be in place by Saturday as a strong
upper trough digs into the northeastern US. The subsidence on
the backside of this is expected to yield another strong surface
high pushing into the Mid-Atlantic region over the weekend. This
will likely ridge down into the Carolinas again on Sat/Sun, with
cooler temps (compared to Friday) returning again. Things get
different after this as a complex, split-flow regime overspreads
the southern and southwestern CONUS. A southern stream shortwave
is forecast to shift eastward and approach by Sunday night, with
moisture and isentropic lift increasing atop the surface ridge
of high pressure as it does so. Rainfall will likely increase in
coverage on Sunday as a result of this, with in-situ wedge
conditions probable given the overall setup. Beyond this, there
is a strong signal amongst deterministic and ensemble guidance
that a robust longwave trough will emerge from the western US by
the middle of next week and influence our weather. However, the
ensemble clusters are showing wide spread, indicative of a low-
confidence forecast even though it is somewhat in the medium
range. IQR values of the LREF members are high next week,
backing this idea up. So while the weather looks increasingly
more active (it would be tough to be less active!) late this
weekend and into next week, confidence is low on details beyond
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 
VFR conditions expected through the period. 

Skies remaining mostly clear with light and variable winds
through sunrise this morning. Stratus development remains 
across eastern NC and is still pushing south and westward, 
similar to what the hrrr is showing this morning. There are a
few clouds in the Pee Dee trying to form, but nothing widespread
at this time. Guidance does show the stratus remaining east of 
the Midlands taf locations before it begins to slow and burn off
after sunrise this morning. Winds are light, with a northerly 
component showing up on regional metar plot for most sites 
across the area. This light wind, and slightly stronger winds 
around 1kt should keep enough mixing in low-levels to help 
inhibit fog this morning. Based on all this, will continue with 
a vfr forecast at this time at all locations. Winds will 
increase to between 6-10 knots once better mixing starts around 
15z, and may even see some gusts above 15 knots throughout the 
day and afternoon hours. Low-levels decouple towards 23z, and 
that will be when winds diminish back down to around 5 knots out
of the northeast overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation concerns 
through the end of the week. A few to scattered high VFR clouds
may move in through Thursday due to onshore flow, but otherwise
remaining dry. Restrictions may return moving into the weekend 
as moisture and rain chances begin to increase.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...73