Weather alerts for the NWS Jacksonville FL forecast area

000
FXUS62 KJAX 281324
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
924 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Coastal Flood Warnings Remain in Effect through Thursday Night
  along the coast, the Intracoastal Waterway, and the Entirety 
  of the St. Johns River basin. 

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue into the Upcoming Weekend.
  Extended Duration of Moderate Tidal Flooding within the St.
  Johns River Basin Continues into the Upcoming Weekend. High
  Surf Advisory through Thursday Night at the Northeast FL
  Beaches. High Risk for Rip Currents at all Area Beaches
  through the Upcoming Weekend. Major Beach Erosion around Times
  of High Tide through Friday. Small Craft Advisory for the
  Atlantic Waters through at least Friday. Gusty Northeasterly
  Winds Continue at Coastal Locations through Friday.

- Isolated Thunderstorms Possible on Sunday and Sunday Night

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights: 

- Coastal Flood Warnings Re-Issued for Coastal Glynn and Camden 
Counties through Thursday Night.

- Coastal Flood Warnings Remain in Effect through Thursday Night 
along Coastal Northeast FL, the Intracoastal Waterway, and the 
Entirety of the St. Johns River basin. 

- Coastal and Marine Hazards Continue into the Upcoming Weekend. 
Extended Duration of Moderate Tidal Flooding within the St. Johns 
River Basin Continues into the Upcoming Weekend. High Surf Advisory 
through Thursday Night at the Northeast FL Beaches. High Risk for 
Rip Currents at all Area Beaches through the Upcoming Weekend. Major 
Beach Erosion around Times of High Tide through Friday. Small Craft 
Advisory for the Atlantic Waters through at least Friday. Gusty 
Northeasterly Winds Continue at Coastal Locations through Friday.

Early morning surface analysis depicts strong high pressure (1035 
millibars) centered over New England, with this feature wedging down 
the southeastern seaboard, with sharp coastal troughing prevailing 
over the near shore Atlantic waters adjacent to coastal southeast GA 
and northeast FL. Meanwhile, weak low pressure has developed near 
the southeast FL coast along a surface trough axis that extends 
across the northwestern Bahamas. Aloft...a highly amplified pattern 
persists across our region, as ridging continues to build from the 
Gulf northeastward along the southeastern seaboard, with this 
feature deflecting a shortwave trough northeastward across the Great 
Lakes region. A stubborn cutoff trough otherwise remains in place 
near the northwestern Bahamas. Latest GOES-East derived Total 
Precipitable Water imagery indicates that a seasonably dry air mass 
prevails for locations north of Waycross in southeast GA, where 
PWATs were below 0.5 inches. PWATs elsewhere ranged from around 0.75 
to 1 inch across the rest of our area, while deeper moisture, 
featuring PWATs in excess of 1.5 inches, was located south of the I-
4 corridor in central FL. Pockets of lower stratus and stratocumulus 
cloud cover were located across portions of northeast and north 
central FL, while fair skies prevailed across most of southeast GA. 
Breezy northeasterly winds were keeping temperatures at coastal 
locations generally in the upper 60s to mid 70s as of 08Z, while 
lighter northerly winds elsewhere have allowed temperatures to fall 
to the mid 50s across portions of inland southeast GA to the low and 
mid 60s for inland locations in northeast and north central FL.

Strong high pressure will continue to wedge down the southeastern 
seaboard through tonight as it shifts offshore of coastal New 
England by this afternoon and evening. Sharp coastal troughing will 
remain in place to the south of this feature across our near shore 
Atlantic waters, and weak low pressure will remain situated near 
coastal southeast FL through tonight. The combination of these 
features will keep a tight local pressure gradient in place across 
our region, with northeasterly winds potentially approaching Wind 
Advisory criteria this afternoon at area beaches. Isentropic lift 
associated with the surface trough axis situated from south FL east-
northeastward across the northwestern Bahamas will strengthen from 
south to north this afternoon and evening as increasing PWATs lift 
northward from the FL peninsula. Marine stratocumulus will continue 
to occasionally move onshore today in the gusty northeast flow for 
coastal northeast FL, with shower coverage increasing towards sunset 
for locations south of St. Augustine. A lingering dry air mass 
elsewhere and plenty of sunshine this morning will allow highs to 
climb to near 80 for inland locations along and west of the U.S. 
Highway 301 corridor. Breezy to windy conditions developing this 
afternoon for locations along and east of I-95 will keep highs in 
the mid to upper 70s.

Isentropic lift will continue to strengthen from south to north 
tonight, with coastal troughing generating scattered to numerous 
showers over the Atlantic waters that will advect onshore across 
coastal northeast FL, with widely scattered showers pushing inland 
past the U.S. Highway 301 corridor after midnight. Increasing cloud 
cover and continued breezy northeast winds will keep lows in the 
upper 60s and lower 70s for locations south of the Interstate 10 
corridor, while fair skies allow lows for inland locations north of 
I-10 to fall to the low and mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Coastal Flooding Hazards Continue: Minor to Moderate Flooding 
During Times of High Tide Along the Atlantic Coast and Within the 
Intracoastal Waterway and the Entirety of the St. Johns River Basin. 

- Beach Hazards Continue: High Surf Advisories Continuing at the 
Northeast FL Beaches, High Risk for Deadly Rip Currents At All Area 
Beaches. Moderate to Major Beach Erosion Continues.

Though there will be some slight changes to the pattern by the 
Thursday/Friday time frame, the general sentiment and forecast will 
be mostly the same story as onshore flow pattern continues. The 
primary change will be the upper low/surface troughing over the 
Bahamas starting to weaken and drift towards the northeast away from 
the region Thursday Night and Friday. This however will not affect 
the onshore flow pattern very much, as a "re-inforcing" ridge of 
high pressure will build across the southeastern states once again 
during the Thursday Night to Friday time frame. In the end, this 
will persist a breezy 10-20G25-35mph type of wind during most of the 
short term period, generally highest closer to the coast and across 
the northeast FL St. Johns River basin, isolated to scattered 
showers near the coast and portions of northeast FL, and 
temperatures generally in the mid 70s by the coast to the low to mid 
80s inland with less cloud cover. 

Coastal Hazards: Persistent onshore flow, combined with elevated 
astronomical tides lingering with the full moon earlier this week, 
will sustain widespread minor to moderate tidal flooding along the 
Atlantic coast, Intracoastal Waterway, and St. Johns River basin 
through Thursday night. Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for 
the entirety of the coast and St. Johns River. Hazardous surf and a 
High Risk of Rip Currents will persist at area beaches, with 
significant beach erosion likely around times of high tide. A High 
Surf Advisory remains in effect for northeast FL beaches through 
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period: 

- At Least Minor Tidal Flooding Likely to Continues During Times of 
High Tide Within the St. Johns River Basin  

- Elevated Rip Current Risk, Surf Likely Continuing through the
  Upcoming Weekend

- Increasing Chances Thunderstorms on Sunday and Sunday Evening 

The overall pattern will evolve through the weekend, introducing 
heightened possibilities for showers and thunderstorms by Sunday as 
a frontal boundary and associated upper trough moves into the 
southeastern states. Onshore flow will be generally unchanged 
through Saturday before winds veer more southeasterly Saturday Night 
and Sunday ahead of the approaching boundary. Depending on the exact 
timing of the front as well as behavior of the associated upper low 
(in which long term guidance has modest differences), this will 
determine the extent of thunderstorm potential on Sunday & Sunday 
Night, as well as any strong to severe storm threat. Monday and 
Tuesday look to be a mostly dry "transition" days before another 
frontal boundary approaches by Wednesday. 

As mentioned above, elevated coastal water levels and hazardous 
beach conditions may persist into the weekend as the prolonged 
onshore flow gradually weakens. Tidal flooding will remain a 
concern, particularly within the St. Johns River basin where 
"trapped" tides may take longer to recede. Rough surf and an 
elevated rip current risk will likely continue along area beaches as 
well. The change in pattern however should at least abate most of 
these hazards with the changes in wind direction, except for some 
areas where locally very heavy rainfall occurs. 

Regarding temperatures, they will trend near or slightly above climo 
as the pattern/wind direction shifts frequently.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
MVFR ceilings will filter across the northeast FL terminals towards 
18Z, with isolated showers possible after 23Z. Kept vicinity 
coverage of showers at the Duval County terminals and GNV at this 
time. North-northeasterly surface winds will become gusty towards 
14Z, with sustained speeds increasing to 15-20 knots at SGJ and CRG 
and 10-15 knots elsewhere, followed by speeds increasing to around 
20 knots at SGJ, CRG, SSI and JAX after 18Z, while speeds at GNV and 
VQQ increase to around 15 knots. Surface speeds will only slowly 
subside after 23Z.

&&

.MARINE...


Strong high pressure situated over New England will continue to 
wedge down the southeastern seaboard as it slowly shifts offshore 
this afternoon. Meanwhile, weak low pressure situated near southeast 
Florida will meander through Thursday before dissipating on Thursday 
night and Friday. These two features will create gusty northeasterly 
winds through Friday, keeping Small Craft Advisory conditions in 
place throughout our local waters. Coastal troughing situated over 
our near shore waters will remain in place through Saturday, with 
this feature generating scattered to numerous showers this afternoon 
for the waters from around St. Augustine southward, with this 
activity then overspreading most of our local waters tonight. 
Periods of isolated to widely scattered showers will then be 
possible from Thursday through Sunday morning. Another strong high 
pressure center building southeastward from New England and the Mid-
Atlantic states this weekend will result in breezy easterly winds 
across our local waters, with another round of Small Craft Advisory 
conditions possible as seas build. A disturbance aloft moving across 
our area on Sunday and Monday may generate numerous showers and a 
few embedded thunderstorms.

Rip Currents / High Surf: High Surf Advisories remain in 
effect for the northeast FL beaches through Thursday night, where 
breakers of 6 to 9 feet will prevail. Breakers of 3 to 6 feet will 
prevail at the southeast GA beaches through Thursday. These 
elevated, rough surf conditions will maintain a high risk of deadly 
rip currents at all area beaches through the upcoming weekend, and 
major beach erosion is likely to occur around times of high tide 
during this extended duration onshore wind event.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     AREAS OF ELEVATED NIGHTTIME DISPERSIONS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS 
- Through Thursday Night

Persistent east to northeast onshore flow will persist through the 
rest of the week, though will weaken slightly by Thursday/Friday. 
This will not change expected conditions much however, as showers 
will continue to occasionally move onshore across mainly northeast 
FL with poor to fair coastal dispersions, in the fair to good 
range inland with better mixing. Areas of high nighttime 
dispersion will also continue near the coast through at least 
Thursday Night. The pattern changes this weekend as a cold front
approaches from the northwest, which will return chances for 
higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms this weekend. 

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER WEATHER REMARKS: Significant fog formation 
is not expected during the next several days.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Northeasterly winds will remain breezy to windy and will combine 
with high astronomical tides due today's lunar perigee to maintain 
moderate tidal flooding through Thursday along our local Atlantic 
coast and within the Intracoastal Waterway (ICWW) and the entirety 
of the St. Johns River basin. Water levels will generally reach 2-3 
feet above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) during times of high tide 
through Thursday. Coastal Flood Warnings have been re-issued for 
coastal Camden and Glynn Counties in southeast GA, with Coastal 
Flood Warnings continuing along our Atlantic coast and within the 
ICWW and St. Johns River basin through Thursday night. Moderate 
tidal flooding may linger into the upcoming weekend within the St. 
Johns River basin, with minor flooding potential continuing around 
times of high tide along the Atlantic coast and within the St. Johns 
River The long duration of this strong onshore wind event will 
likely produce major beach erosion during each high tide cycle 
through at least Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  80  62  81  59 /   0  10   0   0 
SSI  75  66  75  63 /  10  10  10   0 
JAX  77  67  78  66 /  10  30  10   0 
SGJ  77  72  78  69 /  40  70  50  20 
GNV  80  69  82  67 /  10  20  10   0 
OCF  80  70  83  68 /  10  20  30   0 

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ038-124-125-
     132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for GAZ154-166.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$