Advisories

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 062036
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 06 2026
 
Satellite imagery shows that Marie continues to gradually lose 
convective organization. The latest subjective Dvorak estimate from 
TAFB is 65 kt, and objective intensity estimates have fallen to the 
55-62 range. A 1734 UTC partial ASCAT-B overpass shows some 50-kt 
vectors in the eastern semicircle.  The initial intensity is lowered 
to a possibly generous 65 kt for this advisory.

Marie is still moving northwestward, with an initial motion 
estimate of 315/6 kt.  A bend more to the west-northwest is expected 
tonight as the mid- to upper-level trough north of Marie currently 
causing the northwestward motion moves eastward on Monday and 
loosens its grip on Marie.  Then, another mid- to upper-level low 
will strengthen over the Pacific to the northwest of Marie, causing 
a turn back toward the northwest, or possibly north-northwest on 
Tuesday.  The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one 
and closely follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and Google 
DeepMind Ensemble Mean (GDMI).  Based on the spread in the guidance, 
confidence in the track forecast is near average.
 
Marie is traveling over 25 C sea-surface temperatures and through a 
dry airmass.  The cyclone will continue moving over progressively 
cooler water and into a progressively drier airmass over the next 
couple of days.  Therefore, continued steady weakening is forecast.  
Although vertical wind shear is weak right now, southwesterly shear 
is forecast to increase in 36-48 h as Marie approaches the 
aforementioned mid- to upper-level low to its northwest.  Little to 
no change has been made to the previous NHC intensity forecast.  
This forecast lies near the higher end of the guidance suite.  Marie 
is now forecast to lose it's convection and become a post-tropical 
remnant low by day 3 (Wednesday).  After the system becomes 
post-tropical, global models show it weakening and dissipating in 4 
to 5 days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 24.0N 122.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 24.4N 123.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 25.0N 124.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 25.6N 126.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 26.7N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 28.6N 128.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 30.7N 129.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/1800Z 34.6N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen