Advisories

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 050232
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
800 PM PDT Fri Sep 04 2026
 
Marie continues to display a ragged eye surrounded by a large area 
of convection with cloud tops between -50 to -60C.  Some dry air 
still appears to be entraining into the core.  Recent subjective and 
objective satellite intensity estimates range from 75-94 kt.  Thus, 
the initial intensity will be held at 85 kt for this advisory.
 
Marie has turned toward the northwest, with an initial motion 
estimate of 305/7 kt.  Marie will continue moving slowly 
northwestward during the next few days as it passes in between a 
ridge to its west and ridging to its east.  By the middle of next 
week, an upper-level trough near the U.S. West Coast may cause what 
is left of Marie to turn more toward the north-northwest in 4 to 5 
days. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous 
forecast, and lies near the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and the 
Google DeepMind (GDMI) ensemble mean. It should be noted that model 
spread is quite large beyond 2 to 3 days.

It appears as though Marie has already peaked in intensity (no more 
strengthening is expected).  Although vertical wind shear is 
expected to remain low for the next 3 days, Marie will be moving 
into gradually cooler water temperatures as well as a drier air 
mass.  By 48 hours, water temperatures will be below 26C and the 
mid-level relative humidity will be below 50 percent.  The NHC 
intensity forecast shows Marie weakening to a tropical storm by hour 
48, and it shows a slightly faster weakening compared to the 
previous forecast.  The intensity forecast is still near the higher 
end of the guidance suite.  Marie is likely to lose its convection 
by day 5 and become a post-tropical cyclone, and that scenario is 
indicated by both the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 20.8N 119.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 21.5N 119.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 22.4N 121.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 23.9N 122.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  07/1200Z 24.5N 123.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  08/0000Z 25.2N 125.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  09/0000Z 27.4N 127.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  10/0000Z 30.9N 128.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Hagen