Weather alerts for the NWS Springfield MO forecast area

000
FXUS63 KSGF 281045
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
545 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures will be 
  around 10 to 15 degrees above average.

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms (40-60%) Friday
  night through Sunday morning. Periods of dry time accompany
  this system.

- Increasing confidence in additional rain chances early next
  week but there are still uncertainty of the exact timing of 
  the system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

The region remains in an upper level southwest flow pattern
early this morning. A weak upper level disturbance is currently
moving through the flow and a few sprinkles will be possible 
early this morning across extreme southeastern Kansas and west 
central Missouri. Lows will range from the middle to upper 40s 
across the eastern Ozarks to the middle to upper 50s west of 
Highway 65 this morning. 

A warmer air mass will be in place today as 850mb temperatures 
will warm to around 13 to 15C. This will support highs warming 
into the upper 70s to around 80, which is around 10 to 15 
degrees above normal for late October. Southerly winds will 
increase today with gusts up to around 20 to 25 mph at times 
this morning into this afternoon mainly west of Highway 65. Lows
tonight into Thursday morning will be similar to this morning's
lows with highs ranging from the middle/upper 40s across the 
east with highs in the upper 50s to near 60 across extreme 
southeastern Kansas. 

An upper level ridge will be over the region on Thursday along
with the warmer air mass. Highs in the lower 80s are expected 
on Thursday afternoon. Instability will increase across extreme 
southeastern Kansas into west central Missouri Thursday
afternoon/early evening, with the heating of the day along with 
the cap weakening. Lift will be more limited across the area with
the ridge over the region. A dry air mass will also be in place
in the mid levels of the atmosphere. 700-500mb RH values will 
be around 15%. This dry air mass along with limited lift will 
limit shower and storm chances on Thursday. If enough lift can 
occur an isolated shower/rumble of thunder could be possible, 
but most locations should remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

An upper level shortwave trough will move northeast across the
southern Plains on Friday then across the area on Saturday into
Sunday. Much of the day will be dry across the area on Friday with
the upper level energy remaining to the southwest of the area.
As the upper level trough approaches the area scattered showers
and maybe a few rumbles of thunder will develop Friday night
into Saturday morning. This rainfall will likely be light in
nature. As additional upper level energy moves through the area
on Saturday into early Sunday, bands of showers and maybe few 
thunderstorms will be possible. There will be dry periods on 
Saturday and rainfall amounts may be light  generally rainfall 
from a few tenth of an inch to one half inch of rainfall. There 
could be locally heavy amounts with any thunderstorms that can 
develop. No severe weather or flooding is expected this weekend.

The ensemble model members then show an upper level low moving
towards the region early next week. The models differ on the
exact track, structure, and timing of the system from run to 
run and with each other. Therefore, confidence on the timing is
still low for the area. Better lift will occur with this system
which could result in better widespread rainfall amounts, but 
the timing and rainfall amounts and impacts will be dependent on
the track and structure of the system.

Highs in the 70s are expected this weekend into Monday with 
highs in the 60s by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... 
Issued at 545 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected across the area today through
tonight. Mid and high level clouds will continue to move 
through the area this morning and will clear this afternoon and 
evening. Gusty south to southeasterly winds will develop this 
morning and will occur into this afternoon. 

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise