Weather alerts for the NWS Dodge City KS forecast area

000
FXUS63 KDDC 281007
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
507 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A sfc trof axis will bisect the FA today. Breezy and gusty
  southeasterly winds are expected east of the boundary. Light
  northerly winds will develop this evening as the trof axis
  moves slightly to the east.

- The mentioned boundary will shift southward Thursday morning.
  Moist upslope E to NE flow is expected north of the boundary
  with fog and stratus possible in the morning.

- Showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms will be possible 
  Friday with more unsettled weather and stronger winds next 
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

A sfc trof axis will prevail across western Kansas today. Ahead
of the boundary, breezy and gusty southwesterly winds are
expected during the day. Highs today will range from the upper
70s across the northwest zones, to the lower 80s across south-
central Kansas. The sfc boundary will move slightly eastward by
early evening. Light northerly winds are expected in its wake 
by 00Z. This is particularly true for Garden City and Hays. 
Significant fire weather concerns are not expected even with the
warm temperatures and breezy winds. Afternoon relative humidity
levels are expected to remain in the moderate levels, which 
will prevent and major fire wx concerns. 

Otherwise, the boundary will then shift southward late tonight 
into Thursday morning. North of the front, a good moist/NE to E 
upslope flow pattern looks to develop by Thursday morning. This 
is conceptually a good weather pattern that favors stratus and 
fog. Have gone ahead after looking at some CAMs and inserted fog
mainly north of Highway 50 and 56. In addition, Thursday 
afternoon highs look to have big bust potential. In this 
particular weather pattern, the fog and stratus tends to linger
longer than what many models indicate. Have collaborated with 
GLD and decreased highs in the north to account for the stratus 
and fog. If the fog and stratus is widespread, highs may
struggle to reach above 60F in the north. This would be
significantly cooler than what the current NBM indicates.

Attention then turns to Friday into Saturday morning. Moisture
advection is expected Friday with PWATs increasing over 1.00". A
mid level trof is expected to move across the region Friday
evening. This will set the stage stage for rain showers. There
might be a rumble of thunder, however, both lapse rates and
instability look to be on the very marginal side. The best
moisture profile looks to remain across the southeast counties.
As such, the highest NBM pops are in this region. Current NBM
highs Friday may be a few degrees too warm, with all the
precipitation and clouds lingering. Precipitation amounts will
vary, but the southeast counties may seem amounts of around 0.5"
with amounts around 0.10 to 0.25" across the northwest zones.

Long range models and the ensemble counterparts are indicating
for the potential for a much stronger weather system to move
across the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. The
ensembles are not in agreement though the the absolute
strength of the mid level low and where the heaviest
precipitation axis will be located. For example, the GEFS keeps 
the stronger system low farther south than compared with the 
ENS. This would shift the precipitation axis farther south than 
compared to the wetter ENS. This is something to watch. The 
bottom line is that moisture left over from a tropical weather 
system (Vance) may lead to unsettled weather next week. In 
addition, if the system is deep and closed, the resultant wind 
field may be much stronger than what we have seen as of late.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 506 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Primarily VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites
through late evening. Light southerly winds through mid-morning are
expected to turn southwesterly 10 to 20kt with gusts up to 25kt
generally after 15-17Z as a strengthening lee side trough of low
pressure in eastern Colorado edges eastward into west central 
Kansas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sugden
AVIATION...JJohnson