Weather alerts for the NWS Hastings NE forecast area

000
FXUS63 KGID 281126
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
626 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will warm up nicely today after the morning fog 
  dissipates.
 
- Showers (and possibly some t-storms) become possible (20-60%
  chance) Thursday evening and are very likely on Friday (70-90%
  chance). 

- Some rain could linger into Saturday, but the weekend should
  trend drier. 

- The wet pattern continues with another good chance for rain
  late Sunday night through Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Stratus and fog remains entrenched over the northwestern third
of the area, but has dissipated further east. Models indicate
that this could expand back eastward a bit early this morning 
(and latest satellite hints at this as well). Fog and low 
stratus should then mix out late this morning into early
afternoon, and southwesterly surface winds should help push
temperatures into the 70s for most. A cold front will push into
the area from the west, therefore western areas will likely end
up on the cooler side, but portions of Kansas and SE Nebraska
could make a run at 80 degrees! A few spotty showers and weak 
storms may develop near this front this evening, but this is 
favored to occur mainly southeast of the area. 

A few models hint at fog potential again tonight, but the signal
isn't nearly as strong or persistent as it was for tonight. 

Thursday will be a touch cooler, but not unpleasant for late
October. Dry conditions are expected through the day, but a few
showers or weak t-storms could develop Thursday night ahead of
an approaching shortwave. Areas east of Highway 281 are more
favored for this. 

The daytime on Friday won't be a "washout", but showers and 
thunderstorms are a good bet late in the afternoon through the 
evening and overnight. PoPs linger on Saturday (mainly early),
but many global models still favor mostly dry conditions (good
news for trick-or-treaters!). 

Sunday should also remain quiet, but rain is likely again Sunday
night into Monday as another system moves through the region.
This may also usher in some stronger wind and cooler air
(although not particularly cold or windy by November 
standards).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Some weak isentropic lift associated with a shortwave trough 
has helped maintain the low-level stratus layer across the 
area. As the upper-level jet progresses eastward, upper-level 
divergence will continue to support these overcast skies through
the overnight hours. This cloud cover will limit afternoon 
highs to the 50s to low 60s. Furthermore, patchy drizzle and 
isolated showers are possible this afternoon through tonight. 
Along with these dreary conditions, fog is expected to develop 
tonight into tomorrow morning. Recent HREF and REFS guidance 
indicate roughly a 50-80% chance of visibilities falling below 
1/2 mile tonight, primarly along and west of a line from 
Cambridge to Fullerton.

After this upper-level disturbance moves off, a weak upper-level
ridge will build into the region Wednesday into Friday. This 
pattern will allow for some sunshine and slightly warmer 
temperatures to build back into the area, with highs in the 
70s tomorrow and decreasing into the 60s to low 70s Thursday 
and Friday. However, rain chances reenter the forecast late
Thursday evening through likely Saturday afternoon (though 
there is a low chance of lingering rain into Halloween evening) 
as a shortwave trough moves overhead. 

However, the break from precipitation won't last long, as the
larger-scale trough moves into the region Sunday into Monday. 
While there is some uncertainty on the exact timing and strength
of this system, model guidance currently shows a Shift of Tails
(SOT) value over 1 for some areas. This guidance indicates that
at least 10% of model guidance is forecasting an event beyond
local records; corresponding to approximately 10% of model 
guidance having at least 1 inch of rain, with locally higher 
amounts possible. Later forecasts will continue to monitor 
trends in the timing and rainfall accumulation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

EAR remains under low stratus (IFR ceilings) currently. This is
building eastward and should reach GRI by around 12Z. For now,
it appears that the lower visibilities should remain to the
north and west of GRI/EAR. 

Ceilings improve from east to west this morning into the
afternoon. GRI is favored to return to MVFR ceilings by around
15Z and EAR by around 18Z, with VFR conditions follwing a few
hours later. 

Winds today start out of the south and gradually turn to the
west and northwest as a front moves into the area. 

Tonight, some models hint at nother round of fog and/or low 
stratus, but the probability for this occurring at EAR/GRI is
too low (20%) to warrant a mention in the TAF at this point. 

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041-
     046-047-060-061-072>074-082>084.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005-017.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mangels
DISCUSSION...Scott
AVIATION...Mangels