Weather alerts for the NWS Paducah KY forecast area

000
FXUS63 KPAH 281127
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
627 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions with warmer than normal days and nights will 
  continue through the work week.

- Chances of showers return to the region this weekend, with the
  best chances Saturday late evening into Sunday.

- A subsequent system is projected to arrive early to midweek
  next week, with some potential for heavy rain and/or
  thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Updated the aviation section for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Upper level ridging over the Quad State will slightly break to
our northwest as a disturbance moves from Kansas City towards
Chicago. Rainfall tracks well northwest of the Quad State. With
large surface high pressure to our east, a familiar pattern from
the last several days is projected for today and tomorrow: dry 
conditions, above normal temperatures, light winds, and 
localized patchy morning fog. 

Thursday night, a trailing cold front extending from a Canadian
system may brush the northern portions of the Quad State.
Precipitation is not expected, nor is any notable drop in
temperatures. As we move into the weekend, the remnants of
Tropical Storm Vance are projected to track northeastward
through Texas. There remains some model variation in timing and
positioning, but PoPs Saturday into Saturday evening have 
decreased some as models are dialing in focus a little bit 
later. Can't rule out rain interfering with Halloween activities
quite yet, with evening PoPs of 30-40% in SEMO (though, 
considering these are 6 hr PoPs, early evening chances would be
a bit lower). A negatively tilted shortwave trough moves 
through Sunday morning, accompanying some of the better precip 
chances with the weekend system. Overall QPF is still limited 
with amounts maxing out near an inch in the Southern Pennyrile, 
but PWs near 200% of normal can put higher amounts in play. NBM 
48hr QPF probs hold at 30% chance of an inch or more in West 
Kentucky and 5-10% of two inches. Convective potential has 
shifted down again, with thunder removed from the blend. With 
the arrival of this system, and afterwards, highs drop from 
around 80 to closer to 70, though lows remain well above normal 
in the 50s.

Two systems arrive at the West Coast over the weekend, with low
pressure dropping southeastward to the Pacific Northwest, and
another system moving east-northeastward into Southern
California. Split flow merges over the Rockies and develops into
a large system in the Plains, though perhaps not as extensive a
spiral as the deterministic GFS. A steady stream of moisture 
pulls from the Gulf into the system, and an amplifying pattern 
with ridges over the Rockies and east coast can stall out the 
system over the Plains through midweek. Ensemble mean 48hr 
rainfall over the Quad State with this system is 1-1.5", while 
the deterministic is higher. Some portions of the 
Plains/Mississippi River Valley could receive several inches of 
rain, but it remains to be seen whether the Quad State will end 
up in the rainier zone. After all, multiple primary components 
of this system are days from the West Coast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Early morning patchy fog will clear up within a couple hours.
Afterwards, VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period,
with calm winds at night and 5kt southerlies during the 
midday/afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL