Weather alerts for the NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO forecast area

000
FXUS63 KEAX 281138
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
638 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...12z Aviation Update... 

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 15-20% chances of showers and general thunderstorms through
  the morning. 

- Better chances (35-60%) of showers and isolated storms arrive
  this evening across N Missouri and NE Kansas, gradually
  decreasing overnight.

- Multiple additional chances for showers and general
  thunderstorms Thursday afternoon (15-20% S of Missouri River),
  overnight Thursday into Friday (30-75% NE Kansas to NW/N
  Missouri), and Saturday/Sunday (30-60% Widespread).
 
- Above to well above normal temperatures continue through the
  forecast period, with the warmest conditions today through 
  Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Current conditions remain on the quiet side of the spectrum across 
the area, but may not remain so in some cases as we work through the 
remainder of the overnight and through the morning. A plume of 
increasing WAA/moisture advection/isentropic lift has been well 
noted on deterministic guidance for the last coupe of days. This has 
been most notable on around the 305-310k surfaces or around the 850-
750mb layers. Improving, but still fairly marginal lapse rates and 
lack of supportive effective wind shear among guidance will limit 
the opportunity to some scattered showers and general thunderstorms 
across the CWA. Chances will spread northeastward from now through 
the morning hours before more general subsidence and drying within 
the previously mentioned layer occurs by the afternoon. All said, 
chances remain on the lower end of the spectrum, around 20 percent 
or less. This general activity/potential can currently be seen on 
GOES imagery, including the Nighttime Microphysics composite among 
others, via bubbling cloud cover and regional mosaic radar with some 
showers already over the SGF CWA. Otherwise, a breezy day with low 
pressure building over the Colorado Front Range today. Expect 
southerly winds 15-20+ mph and gusts pushing 30+ mph. Temperatures 
also rebound on the heels of the stronger southerly flow, back into 
the upper 70s and low 80s. 

The pattern remains on track to become increasingly more active 
through the remainder of the work week and move into the weekend. A 
northern stream shortwave trough and attendant surface low over 
southern Canada will push a cold frontal boundary across the 
Northern Plains today. Building surface high behind this wave will 
push said boundary into portions of Kansas and Missouri this evening 
and overnight and introduce precipitation chances to NE Kansas and 
NW/N Missouri. This will be best chance for appreciable 
precipitation in a number of days. Lapse rates and wind profiles are 
not supportive of much more than showers and a few rumbles of 
general thunder. 

Boundary drifts southward Thursday, likely stalling out in an east-
west fashion over Central Missouri by the afternoon. This will 
bisect the area temperature wise with northern areas toward the 
lower 70s and areas south of the Missouri River closer to the low 
80s. Some question to the extent/coverage of precipitation as the 
area too looks to be in the 'saddle points' between a couple areas 
of surface high pressure (to the N and SE) and broad lower pressure 
over the western High Plains. Basically, how much convergence and 
lift is achieved is a bit questionable. Best chances may be westward 
into Kansas where southerly flow into the boundary may be stronger. 
Any precipitation development will again be in an environment of 
poor to moderate lapse rates and weak wind shear profiles, yielding 
a showers to general thunder threat primarily for areas near and 
south of the Missouri River and I-70 during the afternoon to early 
evening hours. By the evening and overnight, additional 
opportunities for precipitation begin to blossom over W to NW/N 
areas of the CWA has boundary lifts northward in response to 
boundary lifting back northward as a warm front. This activity may 
linger well into Friday over northern Missouri, especially as you 
push eastward where the boundary is expected to struggle to push 
northward. Again, nothing more than showers to general thunder 
potential there as well. 

Late Friday into the weekend a mid-level shortwave trough is 
expected to lift into the area, but some uncertain lingers in its 
exact path and ultimately precipitation chances and timing. The 00z 
run of the major deterministic models range from widespread showers 
(GFS) to largely overcast but on the dry side (Euro/Canadian) for 
Saturday/Halloween. This too is reflected within their respective 
ensembles and ultimately yields widespread PoPs of 30-60 percent 
within NBM guidance. Temperatures remain on the warm side of 
seasonal norms, but cooling some from the mid-upper 70s for many on 
Friday into the upper 60s to low 70s through the weekend. Some of 
that will be dependent on precipitation coverage as well with noted 
25th/75th MaxT spreads of 5-8 deg F. 

Peeking into next week, sizable western CONUS trough and southern 
stream cutoff low look to merge and work inland. This potentially 
sets up an active/wet period through the first half of the new work 
week. Much to iron out there with vastly different progressions 
depicted among the Euro/GFS/Canadian deterministic runs, but all 
currently yield a yet/active look and tends to be reflected as well 
within their ensemble output.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Predominantly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the
sites. The caveat being a frontal boundary that will begin to
drop into the area toward the latter portions of the TAF period,
which may allow for showers/thunderstorms to develop in and
around KSTJ/KMCI. Have opted for a PROB30 at both sites to
account for this. Otherwise, breezy southerly winds today 15 to
20 kts and gusts as high as 25 to 30 kts then gradually easing
through the evening and overnight. 

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis