Weather alerts for the NWS Quad Cities IA IL forecast area

000
FXUS63 KDVN 281114
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
614 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unseasonably mild and breezy day ahead with a cold front
  bringing scattered showers and isolated storms to portions of
  eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois tonight.

- Rain chances increase further heading into the weekend as 
  slightly cooler air moves in.

- A pattern change early next week could bring a significant 
  system and more rain to the Midwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Shortwave troughing over south-central Canada will help deepen 
a low pressure over Minnesota today as it treks into Ontario. 
The tightening pressure gradient across the CWA and 30-knot LLJ 
is forecasted to produce southerly wind gusts between 15-25 mph 
this afternoon and evening. Highs are likely to climb into the 
mid-to-upper 70s, the warmest of the week. By tonight, a cold 
front moves into central Iowa, supporting scattered showers 
(40-60%) and isolated storms across eastern Iowa and northwest 
Illinois. Rainfall amounts should be light (a trace to a tenth 
of an inch). Conditions dry back out by Thursday afternoon with 
the cold front moving into central Missouri and southern 
Illinois. A weak high pressure slides into Minnesota and 
Wisconsin Thursday night, and northeasterly flow advects in some
cooler air as lows fall into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Friday-Sunday...A longwave trough over the West Coast will lift
a weak trough in the subtropical jet northward into the 
Southern Plains on Friday. Pressure falls across the Central 
Plains and southwesterly flow aloft is expected to transition 
the boundary over central Missouri into a warm front. Isentropic
upglide within the 295-305 K layer is likely to support 
additional showers and storms (50-70% coverage) Friday into 
Saturday. As the subtropical trough approaches Saturday night, 
another round of scattered showers (20-40% coverage) could form 
and persist into Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon, shortwave 
ridging sets back in, providing the area a brief period of 
dryness before heading into a more active pattern early next 
week. By the end of the weekend, there is decent chance (60-90%)
for most of the CWA to see rainfall amounts ranging between 
0.25-0.75 of an inch.

Monday-Tuesday...The longwave trough over the western CONUS 
finally ejects eastward into the Rockies as surface cyclogenesis
occurs again across the south-central Plains on Monday. Beyond 
this point, there are two possible scenarios: (1) the 
subtropical jet becomes out of phase with the polar jet leading 
a more southern track or (2) the jets stay in phase and the low 
moves into the Mid-Mississippi River Valley. This will have 
major implications on our precipitation amounts, temperatures, 
and winds early next week. The only certainty among the 
ensembles is the precipitation type being rain as temperatures 
are likely (70-90%) to stay above 40 degrees through the middle 
of next week. In terms of rainfall amounts, latest NBM guidance 
has a 50-70% of 1+ inches of rainfall between Monday and 
Wednesday morning, but again, these probabilities are 
susceptible to shift as confidence improves on the track of the 
system.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Isolated ground fog is around eastern Iowa this morning, and is
not expected to impact forecast terminals, but may affect Iowa
City airport nearby through 13Z.  

Otherwise, a VFR day is highly confident today, with some
passing morning altocumulus clouds and with those a sprinkle
can't be ruled out, followed by breezy weather from late morning
to early evening. South winds of 10 to 20 kts are expected, with
a few gusts around 25 possible this afternoon in eastern Iowa. 

Tonight, a period of LLWS is expected as strong winds 2kft aloft
blow from the southwest, at 40 to 50 kts, while surface winds 
are 10 kts from the south. This wind period is ahead of a cold
front arriving between 08z and 12Z. Scattered showers and a few
storms are possible with that frontal passage late tonight, with
brief MVFR conditions in rain/thunder. 

Following the frontal passage, there may be some MVFR cigs to
follow during the morning hours Thursday. 

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Delaune
LONG TERM...Delaune
AVIATION...Ervin