Weather alerts for the NWS Jackson KY forecast area

000
FXUS63 KJKL 281153
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
753 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
 
- Dry weather with mild afternoons and cool nights will persist 
  through the end of the work week.

- A potential for rain will return by Sunday and last into the new
  week. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 436 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2026

Our dry and tranquil weather pattern continues early this morning,
courtesy of strong ~1034 mb surface high pressure over the St. 
Lawrence Valley. Temperatures are substantially milder than recent
nights though, with readings ranging from the mid 40s in the 
coldest sheltered valleys to the mid 50s on thermal belt ridges. 
This is largely due to high clouds streaming across the eastern 
Kentucky Coalfields early this morning. Looking aloft, this cloud 
cover is associated with a weak upper-level disturbance passing 
through a broad 500 hPa ridge over the Eastern CONUS. Upstream, a 
similarly broad upper-level trough is found over the Western 
CONUS.

The upper-level disturbance over the Ohio Valley will depart into
the Northeast today, taking the extensive high cloud cover with it
and bringing clearing skies from west to east this afternoon. 
The ridging then prevails both aloft and at the surface through 
the remainder of the short-term period. This will allow for strong
radiational cooling tonight, with a sharper ridge-valley temperature
split and more extensive fog likely through the favored river valleys.
This will be followed by bright sunshine and mild temperatures on
Thursday. Look for temperatures peaking in the mid 70s today/Thursday,
and dipping back into the lower 40s to lower 50s tonight/early 
Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(After midnight Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 614 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2026

At the start of the long term period, 500 mb ridging will be 
centered over the southeastern US, with a deep closed low over the
Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will initially 
be located over far western Texas, translating northeastward with 
time. At the surface, an associated area of low pressure will be 
located near the Oklahoma/New Mexico border, with a surface high 
just southeast of eastern Kentucky. As the initial shortwave 
translates northeast, this low will lift northeastward as well, 
dragging a frontal boundary northward with it. In eastern 
Kentucky, a preexisting boundary will dissipate with time, being 
displaced from upper level support and any low pressure center; 
thus, expect dry weather to continue through the end of the 
workweek under the influence of the midlevel ridge, with high 
temperatures rising into the mid to upper 70s, above average for 
this time of year. Overnight, cloud cover associated with the 
approaching shortwave will build, keeping lows warm in the upper 
40s and low 50s. Cloud cover should linger through the day on 
Friday, suppressing temperatures. Highs will "only" rise into the 
low to mid 70s. 

Although the weather has been dry, Saturday night will bring the 
first mentionable PoPs in over two weeks. A second shortwave will 
approach the area, although there are still notable differences in
timing and impacts among deterministic guidance. The ECMWF favors
dry weather through the weekend, although this seems to be an 
outlier solution at this time, with LREF probabilities for 
measurable precipitation this weekend generally in the 50-60% 
range for our southwestern counties, with these chances decreasing
closer to the West Virginia border. Regardless, atmospheric 
moisture will be anomalously high at this time, with LREF mean PW 
values in the 0.8-1.0 inch range across the forecast area on 
Sunday morning, roughly in the 75th percentile or higher compared 
to climatology for this time of year. With these ingredients in 
place, those looking to enjoy festivities on Halloween night are 
encouraged to monitor future forecast changes as the timing and 
impact of this shortwave become clearer. 

More substantial rain chances will arrive next week as the 
remnants of Tropical Storm Vance drift northeast, interacting with
the upper level low initially located over the Pacific Northwest,
although this far out, details are still fuzzy due to increasing 
model spread. At the surface, a well defined area of low pressure 
should also push eastward toward the forecast area. Rain chances 
will increase in the vicinity of this low's associated warm 
front, expected to lift north through eastern Kentucky. This 
system will interact with the preexisting moist air mass,
increasing confidence in rainfall; however, with poor model 
consistency at this stage, only scattered PoPs are in place early 
next week, more a function of low confidence in the evolution of 
this complicated pattern than a low chance for rain. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2026

VFR conditions prevailed for all terminals at the 12Z TAF issuance.
Any patchy valley fog will dissipate by ~13 to 14Z, leaving 
behind a high cloud ceiling. That VFR ceiling will slowly clear 
from west to east between 16 and 22Z. More widespread river valley
fog is likely to form late tonight but confidence in flight 
category impacts was too low to mention at any terminals. 
Otherwise, light winds will prevail areawide.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...FAGAN
AVIATION...GEERTSON