Weather alerts for the NWS Wilmington OH forecast area

000
FXUS61 KILN 281021
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
621 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry conditions will persist through the week.

2) The potential for rain returns for the latter part of the weekend
with additional rain chances into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Southwest flow aloft will become more zonal by tomorrow. Short wave
ridging will develop into the region late in the week as the flow
buckles in response to a substantial short wave moving into the 
Plains.

Low level flow will be southerly until Thursday night when a cold 
front slides through the area in response to a short wave passing 
well north of the area. Cannot completely rule out an isolated shower
with the front along and north of I-70. While the chance of 
measurable rain is non-zero, it is still extremely low and thus the 
forecast remains dry. High pressure will then build into the area 
Friday and move off to the east on Saturday. 

Above normal temperatures will continue, although in the wake of the
front, readings will be not quite as warm. Highs may only be 7 to 10
degrees above normal on Saturday compared to 10 to 15 degrees above
normal today and Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2)
Much of the guidance suite has been trending slightly slower and a 
bit further south with the track of a short wave that will move 
through the region Sunday into Sunday night.(GEFS is the slowest in 
this trend.) Still expecting deeper moisture to accompany this, but 
forcing may not be very impressive. Even so, this should be the end 
of the extended dry period, but rainfall may end up not being very 
much, especially across northern counties. We shall see how guidance
solutions evolve through the rest of the week. 

This will be the beginning of a more active pattern next week.
Ensemble spread increases, as is usually the case, which smears the
PoP forecast through Tuesday. It will not be wet all of the time, but
the chance of rain will be present through the latter part of the 
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mid and high clouds will move off to the east early in the period
with just a few lingering clouds for the rest of the day. Winds will
become south southwest at 10 kt or less and then back and decrease
after 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday afternoon.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...35