Weather alerts for the NWS Upton NY forecast area

000
FXUS61 KOKX 281310
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
910 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes at this time.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure will remain the dominant player through the
weekend.

2) One more round of localized minor coastal flooding for the 
SW CT coast during the time of high tide this afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A benign stretch of weather will continue through the upcoming 
weekend with high pressure largely in control. High pressure 
across the area this morning will move offshore this afternoon 
and then gradually gives way to another approaching cold front, 
which passes through dry on Friday. Another strong high builds 
across the area for the weekend.

Outside of some of high level clouds today associated with a 
shortwave moving through the ridge, expect mostly sunny days and
clear nights. Highs today are forecast to be in the upper 50s 
to lowers 60s, gradually warming through Friday. Highs have
backed off a bit on Friday with a dry cold frontal passage 
during the late morning into the early afternoon hours. However,
it will still be unseasonably warm with temperatures in the 
upper 60s to the lower 70s. Both highs and lows Friday will be 
about 10 degrees above normal.

Behind the cold front, cooler weather is on tap for the 
weekend, but remaining dry.

Rain chances remain low for Sunday night into Tuesday. Based on
latest trends in the global models, northern branch high 
pressure could win out and keep conditions dry. 

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
This afternoon should be the last round of localized minor 
coastal flooding for coastal Fairfield county in SW CT. While
high pressure is over the region, astronomically high tides 
(King Tide) and an easterly swell have produced the above 
normal water levels. Less than foot is needed to reach minor 
coastal flood benchmarks. Water levels will gradually subside
for the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Strong high pressure remains near the area terminals through the 
TAF period. 

VFR. 

Light NE-E to near calm winds through the morning push. Winds
then become SE-S winds 5-10 kt around or after 16Z. light and
variable winds expected once again this evening and overnight. 

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No amendments expected. 

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... 

Thursday through Saturday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt possible Fri 
afternoon. 

Sunday: Mainly VFR throughout the day. Chance of showers with MVFR 
cond possible late and towards evening from the NYC metro terminals 
north/west.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, 
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions should remain below SCA levels through the week with high 
pressure in control and a relatively weak pressure gradient most of 
the time. The gradient will strengthen a bit with the approach and 
passage of a cold front later this week, and isolated gusts up 
to 25 kt cannot be completely ruled out on the ocean waters late
Friday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DW