Weather alerts for the NWS Burlington VT forecast area

000
FXUS61 KBTV 281033
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
633 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 223 AM EDT Wednesday...

No notable changes have been made to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 223 AM EDT Wednesday...

1. A brief spike in temperatures is expected for Thursday, 
which will return closer to normal after a cold front mostly 
notable for the breezy conditions it will bring.

2. Dry and seasonable weather is expected over the weekend, 
with chances for showers returning next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 223 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Despite the dewpoint depressions, light winds, clear 
skies, and surface high pressure, the radiational cooling has not 
been very pronounced. There's still some time before high clouds and 
warm advection begin, but it seems we'll not fall as low as 
forecast. Temperatures are still plenty cool with 20s across the
region. A compact vort will track northeast. Clouds will 
overspread the region much of the day, and there should be some 
signs of virga. A very dry layer from the surface-850mb will 
likely prevent any precipitation from reaching the ground. 
Forecast soundings suggest precipitation should make it to about
5000-6000 ft elevation before evaporating/sublimating away. 
Overall, a somewhat dreary, but not a bad weather day as 
temperatures climb into the 50s with light south winds.

Tonight into Thursday, those south winds will increase ahead of an 
incoming frontal boundary. South winds overnight will mean that the 
Champlain Valley and northern slopes of the Adirondacks will be 
warmest with low to mid 40s, while the rest of the region should 
still fall in and around the freezing mark. The same areas will 
likely also observe the strongest gusts by mid afternoon, likely 
ranging from 25-35 mph. Temperatures will respond with the steady 
south to southwest winds, and climb into the 60s, perhaps even 
touching 70 F. NBM probabilities range 10-50%, and the forecast 
expressly has 70 F for areas like Fort Covington, Mooers, and 
Altona, New York.

For the front, there are no significant changes. A modest frontal 
boundary will shift southeast. Recent dryness will make its narrow 
moisture feed unlikely to produce significant precipitation as 
synoptic support falters, and the frontal boundary stretches out. So 
there will be a northwest-southeast "gradient" where northern areas 
receive a few hundredths, and areas to the south receive little to 
no precipitation. More seasonable temperatures into the 50s in the 
day and 20s-lower 30s at night return behind the front. 
Postfrontal gusts will be strongest on Friday with good 
afternoon mixing bringing gusty northwest winds of 20-30 mph, 
locally to 35 mph for areas like Ellenburg, NY.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Surface high pressure will build over the region for the 
weekend, bringing another period of dry and seasonable weather. High 
temperatures will generally climb into the 50s and low 60s this 
weekend. Heading into next week, it looks there could be a few 
chances for showers towards the start of next week, although some of 
the latest global deterministic models suggest the dry pattern we've 
been in will continue into early next week. We'll have to keep and 
eye on trends given the large amount of uncertainty at this stage.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...VFR conditions persist throughout the forecast
period at all terminals. Light to calm terrain-driven winds will
become more southerly across most terminals after 15Z or so 
this morning, before trending light and variable overnight. 
Some high and mid level clouds look to gradually move into the 
region tonight, with ceilings expected to stay above 7000 ft 
AGL.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Routine observations from KSLK ASOS are unavailable until
further notice. While the site is operating, it is not able to
disseminate observations normally at this time. Technicians are
aware of the issue, but time of return to service is unknown.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Haynes
DISCUSSION...Haynes/Kremer
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV