Weather alerts for the NWS Boston/Norton MA forecast area

000
FXUS61 KBOX 280536
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
136 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Increased the forecast wind gusts for Friday. 
Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the forecast. 

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gradual warmup brings high temperatures from the 50s to the 
  60s and 70s Thursday and Friday as the prolonged dry stretch 
  continues. Windy conditions arrive Friday ahead of a weak cold
  front. 


- Transition to a more unsettled weather pattern by early next
  week, bringing periodic chances for rain. However, confidence
  in specific timing remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Gradual warmup brings high temperatures from the 50s 
to the 60s and 70s Thursday and Friday as the prolonged dry stretch 
continues. Windy conditions arrive Friday ahead of a weak cold 
front. 

Cold start to the day today as efficient radiational cooling has 
brought some of the coldest air of the season to the region. Lows 
have ranged from the lower 40s across urban areas to the lower 20s 
in the valleys of northern Massachusetts. Should see temperatures 
rebound fairly quickly by the early morning under full sun. Still, 
it will be somewhat cool today with high temperatures in the mid 50s 
in the interior and near 60 across the lower CT River Valley. Warmer 
lows Wednesday night as mid and high clouds overspread the region 
during the first half of the night. A more narrow window of clearing 
through the second half of the night will likely result in lows 
running about 5-10 degrees warmer. 

Expecting a rebound in higher temperatures Thursday as a surge of 
warm advection ahead of a cold front warms 925 mb temperatures to 
between +11 and +15C.This will yield high temperatures in the mid-
60s on Thursday with a few isolated readings near 70 in the 
Connecticut and Merrimack River Valleys. Despite the mid-level 
zonal flow Friday (ahead of our next weak wave), the westerly flow 
will support efficient mixing in the boundary layer. This will 
result in a gusty/windier day and likely the warmest day of the week 
with high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. Some of the 
strongest gusts will likely be found downwind of the Berkshires with 
a favorable wind direction for downsloping and thus locally 
higher gusts. NBM continues to highlight probabilities 50-75%+ 
for temperatures 70F or greater with the highest probabilities 
for the valleys and I-95 metros. This is reasonable given the 
added factor of the warming downslope flow. A mild late-October 
day is looking likely. 

Another moisture-starved shortwave and cold front moves overnight 
Friday. This will shift temperatures back into the lower 60s this 
weekend, which is seasonable for late October.


KEY MESSAGE 2...Transition to a more unsettled weather pattern by
early next week bringing periodic chances for rain. Confidence 
in specific timing remains low. 

Looking ahead to next week, ensemble continues to show a rather 
chaotic upper level pattern unfolding across the CONUS. A deep 
trough digs over the western US as a series of embedded shortwaves 
eject into the plains and track E. Guidance shows a wide range of 
solutions with the eventual tracks of these systems as they approach 
the region early next week. Many factors, namely the extent and 
magnitude of upper level confluence will govern the strength and 
track of any eventual storms. At the moment, think the NBM has a 
good handle on POPs Sunday night into Tuesday with probabilities 
increasing to between 20 and 45 percent. 

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...High confidence. 

VFR conditions. Light wind patterns continue. Generally out of
the N less than 6 kts in the morning, then transitioning to SW 
in the afternoon after a period of more VRB winds. SSE winds
possible at BOS for a period in the afternoon before becoming SW 
late afternoon/evening. 

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR conditions. Initially light winds become SW and
increase to 5-10kts overnight. 

KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF. 

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday through Thursday Night: VFR. Breezy. 

Friday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. 

Friday Night through Saturday: VFR. Breezy. 

Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. 

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. 
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. 
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Thursday...High confidence.

Light winds and seas 1-3 ft for today as high pressure persists
across the coastal waters. High pressure slowly pulls away
Thursday with increasing SW winds to between 15 and 20 kts.
Marginal SCA conditions possible across the near coastal waters. 

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. 

Thursday Night through Friday: Low risk for Small Craft
Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. 

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. 

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. 

Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. 

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mensch/FT
AVIATION...Belk/FT
MARINE...FT