Advisories

000
WTPA43 PHFO 242032
TCDCP3
 
Tropical Depression Moke Discussion Number  18
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Mon Aug 24 2026

A large burst of convection has formed on the western side of Moke, 
with little convection elsewhere due to dry air.  Satellite 
intensity estimates are basically unchanged from earlier, so the 
initial wind speed remains 30 kt.  While many convective bursts can 
lead to intensification, some of these strong bursts can actually 
cause the system to weaken due to dry air entrainment and strong 
downbursts distorting the low-level circulation.  All of the 
models suggest that this is the last significant burst, and thus the 
system is likely to either open up in a trough or cease organized 
deep convection tonight.  Thus no changes were made to the intensity 
or dissipation forecast of Moke.

The depression continues moving just north of due west at about 14 
kt.  There are no changes to the forecast as a strong high pressure 
area steers the storm on the same general path for the next day or 
two.  Even though Moke is well southwest of the Hawaiian Islands, 
periods of heavy rain could still cause flash flooding across 
portions of the Big Island today.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Localized heavy rain associated with Tropical Depression Moke 
will continue over the Hawaiian Islands today.  This rainfall may 
produce areas of flash flooding for portions of the Big Island, 
including flood-prone and low-lying locations, as well as urban 
areas.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 15.7N 161.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 16.1N 163.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  25/1800Z 16.6N 166.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake