Advisories

000
WTPA43 PHFO 202039
TCDCP3
 
Tropical Depression Two-C Discussion Number   2
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Thu Aug 20 2026

The convection around Tropical Depression Two-C has continued to 
show some improvements since the last advisory, and the low-level 
circulation is a little better defined, as evident in satellite 
data.  The objective Dvorak estimates range between 22-33 kt and the 
subjective estimates from JTWC and HFO are 1.5/25 kt and 2.0/30 kt, 
respectively.  Based on these estimates, the initial intensity 
remains 30 kt.  Both NOAA and Air Force aircraft reconnaissance 
will investigate the cyclone tomorrow.
 
The system appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt, 
and that motion is expected to persist for the next 48 hours or so 
until the ridge north of it strengthens. This steering flow is 
expected to force the system to turn more toward the west in a few 
days. The current NHC track lies on the northern side of the 
guidance envelope, but there is some uncertainty in the details in 
regards to the strength of the ridge and a nearby trough. It is 
important to note that the NHC track error at 72 h is about 75 n mi, 
and interests in the Hawaiian Islands, especially the Big Island, 
should monitor the progress of this system. The latest NHC track is 
slightly south of the previous one, but there is not much else in 
the way of change.
 
The cyclone is expected to be in a mostly favorable environment for 
the next couple of days, which should allow for gradual 
strengthening to a high-end tropical storm or a category one 
hurricane as the system moves toward the Hawaiian Islands. Beyond 
that time, wind shear will likely start to increase and dry air will 
also begin to to intrude into the cyclone. The current NHC intensity 
forecast calls for a peak wind speed of 55 kt this weekend, with 
gradual weakening occuring after that. This forecast lies is a 
little lower than the previous one but remains near the high end of 
the model guidance.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. The tropical depression is expected to strengthen while it moves 
west-northwestward toward the Hawaiian Islands late this week and 
this weekend.

2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Two-C is 
expected to begin to impact the Big Island of Hawaii late Saturday 
night, spreading westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian 
Islands Sunday into Monday. This rainfall may produce 
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain 
and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.  

3. There is a risk of wind and wave impacts in the Hawaiian Islands 
regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system. Watches 
may be required for portions of the Hawaiian Islands tonight or 
Friday and residents there should closely monitor the latest 
forecast updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan 
in place. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 12.5N 143.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 12.9N 145.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 13.5N 146.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 14.4N 148.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/1800Z 15.2N 150.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  23/0600Z 15.9N 152.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  23/1800Z 16.4N 154.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  24/1800Z 17.2N 159.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  25/1800Z 18.3N 163.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi