Advisories

000
WTPA43 PHFO 231444
TCDCP3
 
Tropical Storm Moke Discussion Number  13
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   CP022026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM HST Sun Aug 23 2026

Moke continues to pulse some convection in the northern semicircle, 
though much of the southern portion of the storm is exposed due to 
persistent shear.  The initial intensity is held at 40 kt given 
little change in the overall organization of the cyclone during the 
past several hours.  This is also in agreement with earlier 
aircraft data and close to recent Dvorak estimates.

The storm is expected to move through a challenging environment 
during the next several days, with plentiful mid-level dry air and 
moderate shear in its path.  These conditions will likely beat out 
the warm sea-surface temperatures, and Moke should struggle to 
produce sustained deep convection in this regime.  Shear is 
forecast to increase in 2-3 days, and the storm is expected to 
weaken into a tropical depression or remnant low around that time.  
The new forecast is a bit lower than the last one late in the 
period and shows an earlier transition to a post-tropical cyclone.  
It should be mentioned that more models are now showing the system 
opening up into a trough of low pressure even earlier than shown 
below due to the harsh environment and Moke's forward speed.  
 
Moke is moving westward at about 13 kt, wobbling a bit as 
convective bursts briefly pull the system north of due west.  A 
general west-northwestward motion is anticipated during the next 
several days as a strong low- to mid-level ridge remains to the 
north of the cyclone. This track should bring the center of Moke a 
couple of hundred miles south of the Big Island today and then well 
south of the rest of the main Hawaiian Islands thereafter. The 
model guidance is a bit south of the last forecast, and the NHC 
track is moved in that direction. Despite the center of Moke 
remaining south of the Hawaiian Islands, the cyclone is expected to 
pass close enough to produce a period of gusty winds and heavy 
rainfall across portions of the islands during the next couple of 
days.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Moke will begin to
impact the Big Island of Hawaii today. Rain will then spread 
westward across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands through
Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and
mudslides for the windward and southeast Big Island, especially in
steep terrain and over areas that were affected recently by Lala.
 
2. Although the strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to
pass south of the Hawaiian Islands, strong gusty winds are likely,
particularly in areas within and downslope of higher terrain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/1500Z 15.2N 155.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 15.3N 157.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 15.6N 159.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 16.0N 162.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 16.7N 164.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  26/0000Z 17.5N 167.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  26/1200Z 18.4N 170.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake