Weather alerts for the NWS Omaha/Valley NE forecast area

000
FXUS63 KOAX 281033
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
533 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy drizzle and fog continue overnight, gradually
  dissipating in favor of gusty winds Wednesday morning into 
  the afternoon

- A cold front arrives during the afternoon hours, with a low-
  end severe threat developing after 6 PM from western Iowa to
  to northeast. Better chances for rain fill in early Friday
  through Saturday.

- Strong storm system moves into the region early next week,
  bringing another round of showers Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Fog has developed across portions of north central Nebraska this
morning, resulting in visibility of one quarter mile or less in
some locations. As a result of continued concerns for low
visibility due to fog and travel considerations, a Dense Fog
Advisory has been issued for Antelope, Boone, Pierce and Madison
counties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Tonight into Wednesday:

Water vapor imagery this evening shows broad troughing in place over 
the western CONUS as a few mid/upper vorticity maxima pivot through 
the flow. To the east, much of the central into eastern CONUS 
continues somewhat languid southwesterly flow. Nighttime cloud 
phase imagery highlights the lower clouds that hold areas of 
drizzle, and areas of clearing that let the early evening 
radiational cooling result in some patchy fog develop, primarily
near Nebraska City and points to the northeast into west- 
central Iowa. Models have been very slow to catch on to the 
lower visibilities, with increasing warm air advection helping 
to stir up a bit more lift for increasing cloud cover and 
potentially some warming. Some areas of fog may persist through 
the initial half of the overnight hours, but this area could 
drift northeast as cloud cover builds back in and the areas of 
clearing stay ahead of it. That broad warm air advection has 
also helped some lighter returns on radar develop near Lincoln 
and points north, largely in the form of drizzle. 

By daybreak tomorrow, much of the cloud cover outside central into 
northeast Nebraska will mix out, with swift southerly flow arriving 
to the area as the surface pressure gradient tightens in 
anticipation of a shortwave trough passing to the northwest of the 
area. Winds gusting to 25-35 mph are expected with a bump in surface 
temperatures, keeping us well above normal temperature-wise for this 
time of year. Lingering moisture is also available ahead of the 
impinging cold front associated with the shortwave trough, working 
with the frontal lift and mid/upper height falls to result in shower 
and thunderstorm development across far eastern South Dakota, Iowa, 
and Minnesota. The lively kinematics pair with the limited 
instability to create a limited severe storm threat. The overlap of 
the best instability and forcing remains largely northeast of the 
area, but we're still under the gun of a few weaker showers and 
storms as the cold front pushes through from 6 PM to midnight. If we 
do see a storm reach higher intensities, damaging hail and wind are 
the primary threats with any tornado threat remaining to the 
northeast where the main surface low and warm front track. 
Otherwise, another day full of temperature contrast between 
northeast NE and southeast NE/southwest IA is on tap, though the 
wind will keep many from spending a ton of time enjoying time
outside.

Thursday and Beyond:

Wednesday's cold frontal passage moderates temperatures into 
Thursday, leaving the stark contrast between northwest and southeast 
behind in favor of temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s across 
the area. Much of the day is anticipated to be dry as high 
pressure follows the front, with additional cloud cover arriving
from the southwest Thursday afternoon and evening that will 
hold increasing chances for light rain and drizzle into the 
overnight hours. These rain chances only increase into Friday as
a shortwave emerges from the Southern Plains, ejecting north-
northeast towards the Great Lakes region over the weekend. With 
rain chances and their associated cloud cover remaining in the 
forecast, highs in the upper 60s settle in for the weekend, 
while still remaining above normal for this time of year (which 
is around 60 degrees). Both trick-or-treaters and bonfire 
havers will be watching if we'll have a break in the rainfall 
Halloween evening, with models suggesting that we are more 
likely to be rainy than not (though recent deterministic runs 
are trending drier). It'll be a good idea to have umbrellas and 
rain boots at the ready regardless for any young'uns roaming the
streets in search of treats.

The story of the upcoming work week continues to be dominated by at 
least one cutoff low that deepens over the central CONUS, slowly 
drifting eastward as it is followed up by deepening shortwave 
troughs moving through the amplified pattern. The evolution of the 
system is wildly different between each model system, with strong 
winds and at least one shot of healthy rainfall expected at a 
minimum. Ensemble members across the board continue to downplay any 
hopes for snow, and the better thing to watch will end up being 
locations that see the deformation band of rainfall as the system 
pivots and slows down. Areas that do see the longer period of 
healthy rainfall will see rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches due to the 
sheer duration of the moderate rainfall. With no slam dunk PWAT 
values in the area, flash flooding remains a pretty limited threat. 
Uncertainty only increases through the week, with the best signal 
being a period to dry out in as ridging builds from the 
Intermountain West late in the work week/weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 527 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

KOFK: Dense fog has developed across central and north central
Nebraska this morning, spreading east. Expect a few more hours
of dense fog and low ceilings. IFR ceilings persist through
around 18Z with visibility gradually improving. Heading into the
afternoon and evening, expect a significant decrease in cloud
cover and possibly a few hours of clear or mostly clear skies.
South winds will transition to westerly this afternoon before
becoming northwest this evening.

KLNK/KOMA: LLWS will be possible through around 15Z at the
terminals. Expect VFR conditions through most of the forecast
period. Dense fog has developed in central Nebraska and is
spreading to the east. Some patchy fog may develop in low-lying
areas, but significant impacts to the terminals are not
currently expected. Clouds will decrease heading into the
afternoon and evening. Southerly winds will transition to
westerly this evening and north-northwest to north overnight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for NEZ016-017-
     030-031.
IA...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ANW
DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...ANW