Advisories

WTPN32 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 26W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 028    
   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z --- NEAR 36.3N 149.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 035 DEGREES AT 30 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 330 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            330 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            325 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 36.3N 149.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 42.6N 156.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 340 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            340 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            300 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 52 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 50.2N 167.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 380 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            360 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 37.9N 151.3E.
06OCT26. TYPHOON 26W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 461 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 30
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS 26W WITH A REMNANT, COMPACT INNER CORE, WHICH IS 
UNDERGOING A RAPID DECOUPLING WITH THE LOWER-LEVEL VORTEX DUE TO 
PERSISTENT, HIGH SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE DECOUPLING HAS NOT YET 
PROGRESSED FAR ENOUGH TO SEE CLEAR EVIDENCE OF IT IN THE EIR, AND A 
LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY OR SCATTEROMETER DATA LIMITS ANALYSIS 
CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, THE OUTER EDGES OF THE LOW-LEVEL BANDING FEATURES 
CAN BE SEEN STARTING TO EMERGE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SMALL 
CDO FEATURE WHICH IS VERY RAPIDLY TRANSLATING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. 
PHASE-SPACE ANALYSES SUGGEST 26W IS ALREADY BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND ITS TRANSITION IS EXEPECTED TO 
OCCUR VERY RAPIDLY NOW THAT IT HAS COMMENCED. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE 
TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, REACHING OVER 
50 KNOTS OF FORWARD SPEED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. IN TERMS OF 
INTENSITY, WHILE THE BULK OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES HAVE BEGUN A SHARP DECLINE DUE TO THE DECREASE IN DEEP 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, THE SATCON REMAINS NEAR 77 KNOTS WHICH IS VERY 
LIKELY VERY CLOSE TO REALITY, AS THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE TIME TO SPIN 
DOWN. THE ADDITION OF BAROCLINIC FORCINGS WILL SLOW THE RATE OF 
WEAKENING EVEN MORE, AND 26W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT TYPHOON STRENGTH 
AS IT COMPLETES ETT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 061800Z IS 959
MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 42 FEET.
REFER TO TYPHOON 15E (NOLO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 27W (KOGUMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
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