Advisories

WDXS31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (AGUEDA) WARNING 
NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 6.7S 49.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 620 NM EAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
COMPACT CYCLONE WITH DETERIORATING CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS. A 221451Z WSFM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED THAT THE
LOWER LEVEL STRUCTURE IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND ONLY A FEW WEAK
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING IN TOWARD THE CENTER ON THE EASTERN
FLANK. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
ON TRACING LOW CLOUDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC IN ANIMATED
EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WIDE SPREAD OF OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
AND THE DEGRADING SATELLITE PRESENTATION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED AS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO MODERATE
MID-LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   FMEE: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 221800Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 60 KTS AT 221700Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 23 KTS AT 221918Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 30 KTS AT 221900Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE STR POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA. THE TRACK IS FORECAST
TO TURN ALMOST DUE WEST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, THAN WEST-NORTHWEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY 72 IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING VWS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT THE WESTWARD TRACK, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS LOSE TRACK OF
THE VORTEX ALTOGETHER AFTER TAU 36. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS
PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE
STEADY WEAKENING TREND WITH NO NOTABLE OUTLIERS. THE JTWC INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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