Advisories

WDXS31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (AGUEDA) WARNING 
NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 6.0S 50.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 50 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 687 NM EAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT, 
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION, WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION BECOMING 
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 220504Z ASCAT-B 
PASS REVEALS A COMPACT INNER CORE OF INTENSE, STORM-FORCE WINDS, 
WITH A SMALL RADIUS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD 
PPROXIMATELY 70NM. AN EARLIER 220215Z SENTINEL-1C SYNTHETIC 
APERTURE RADAR (SAR) PASS DEPICTED A MEAN MAXIMUM WIND MEASUREMENT 
OF 50 KNOTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE 
BASED ON THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) INDICATED IN THE 
ASCAT DATA AND VISIBLE IN METEOROLOGICAL IMAGERY. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF 
THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES BELOW, SUPPORTED 
BY BOTH THE ASCAT AND SAR SWATHS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
FAVORABLE, WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), STRONG 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS).

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER AND SAR DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 49 KTS AT 220500Z
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 220600Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 53 KTS AT 220600Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 41 KTS AT 220502Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 41 KTS AT 220530Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S IS CURRENTLY MOVING 
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR 
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE STR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONCURRENTLY, AS TC 02S REACHES ITS PEAK 
INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN ONTO A WESTWARD HEADING IN 
RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 48, AS TC 02S 
BEGINS TO WEAKEN, IT WILL COME UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW- 
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, INITIATING A TURN 
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN COAST OF AFRICA. REGARDING INTENSITY, 
THE SYSTEM HAS AN APPROXIMATE 12-HOUR WINDOW OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION; CONSEQUENTLY, TC 02S IS FORECAST TO REACH 
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BY TAU 12. THEREAFTER, WHILE DEEP-LAYER 
VWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW, MODERATE MID-LEVEL WESTERLY 
SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS EARLY AS TAU 24. BY TAU 48, THE WESTERLY MID-
LEVEL SHEAR WILL EXCEED 25 KNOTS, AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ENTRAINMENT 
ACCELERATED BY THE ELEVATED WESTERLY SHEAR WILL DEGRADE 02S, LEADING 
TO STEADY DECAY. TC 02S IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 72. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH MINIMAL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF UNDER 75NM THROUGH 
TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST ALIGNS CLOSELY TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS 
MEAN WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72. INTENSITY GUIDANCE EXHIBITS 
POORER AGREEMENT, WITH HIGH PARAMETRIC UNCERTAINTY. HAFS-A AND CTCX 
BOTH DEPICT THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING TO 55 TO 60 KNOTS BETWEEN TAU 12 
AND TAU 24, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE DEPICTS LITTLE 
TO NO ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. HAFS-A THEN REVEALS A GRADUAL 
WEAKENING TREND BUT MAINTAINS TC 02S ABOVE GALE-FORCE THRESHOLDS UNTIL 
TAU 108, WHILE CTCX RAPIDLY WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AFTER ITS PEAK TO 30 
KNOTS BY TAU 60. THE JTWC FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE HAFS-A 
AND CTCX TRENDS, WITH OVERALL MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: MEDIUM//
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