Advisories

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 192039
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026
200 PM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that the convection within the inner
core of Elida has weakened since the previous advisory. The
convective weakening is likely in connection to the cyclone moving
over the colder ocean waters. In addition, the latest subjective 
Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB came in at T3.0/55 kt, which is 
slightly lower than the previous estimate. However, the latest 
ASCAT pass, while partial, did sample of peak surface winds away 
from the center of around 45 kt. Thus the intensity for Elida has 
been held at 50 kt for this advisory. 
 
The initial motion is north-northwestward, or 340/8 kt. Elida is
expected to continue turning northward while gradually accelerating
over the next day or two as it becomes increasingly steered by a
deep-layer trough off the California coast. There was a slight 
nudge to the west with this advisory, but the track guidance
maintains an overall good consistency from the last several periods.
As such only very minor adjustments have been made to the NHC
forecast track.
 
The convection in the inner core of Elida looks less impressive than 
before, and this is an indication that the cyclone is starting to 
weaken. The system is moving over sea-surface temperatures below 25 
degrees C, and ocean waters are expected to cool further as the 
system continues to move northward over the next couple days. In 
addition,  increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and drier 
mid-level air should also contribute to a steady weakening trend.  
Elida is forecast to lose its deep convection and become a remnant 
low on Tuesday, with the remnant low dissipating by late Wednesday. 
The NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the 
previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/2100Z 23.2N 125.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 24.8N 126.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 27.4N 127.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 30.1N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  21/1800Z 32.7N 127.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  22/0600Z 34.9N 127.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/1800Z 37.1N 127.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Pasch