Advisories

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 172020
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026
200 PM PDT Fri Jul 17 2026
 
The latest ASCAT pass shows that the strongest winds are around 45 
kt, while the most recent Dvorak fixes suggest the winds could be as 
high as 55 kt. While there is no notable change in the structure of 
Elida, with the convection being confined mostly to the east side, 
the intensity for this advisory is being kept at 55 kt. This  could 
be a little generous, however. The ASCAT data also revealed that 
the strongest winds are located in the northern side of the storm, 
and tropical-force-winds extend about 170 n mi to the southeast. 
Thus, Elida is still very asymmetric at this time.
 
Based on recent fixes, Elida's position has been shifted a bit
to the south of the previous track with a initial motion estimated
at 295/10 kt. A deep-layer trough remains entrenched off the west
coast of the United States, which should cause Elida to turn
northwestward and then north-northwestward by Sunday. The track
guidance continues to shift a bit more to the east, thus the
official NHC track forecast has again been nudged in that direction.
 
Elida has a very limited time to strengthen over warm waters and
in a low-shear environment. However, there is a possibility that 
Elida can become a strong tropical storm. The peak intensity has 
been brought down to 60 kt with this advisory again, since Elida 
is running out of time to strengthen. This does keep the intensity 
forecast in-line with the bulk of the guidance. Weakening should 
being around 24 hours due to Elida moving over cooler waters and 
into a region of increasing shear. Elida could lose organized deep 
convection and become post-tropical around day 3.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/2100Z 17.1N 121.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  18/0600Z 17.9N 122.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  18/1800Z 19.4N 124.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  19/0600Z 21.0N 125.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  19/1800Z 22.9N 126.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  20/0600Z 24.8N 127.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  20/1800Z 26.9N 128.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  21/1800Z 30.9N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/1800Z 34.2N 131.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Katz/Cangialosi