Advisories

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 162033
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052026
200 PM PDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Satellite imagery indicates that Elida has become a little better 
organized since the last advisory, with some convective curvature 
now seen near the center. However, there is no evidence yet that 
the storm is developing an eyewall or inner convective core. A 
recent partial ASCAT overpass showed wind vectors as high as 47 kt 
northeast of the center. Based on this, possible undersampling 
issues, and slight increases in the various satellite intensity 
estimates, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt.
 
The initial motion is now 280/9 kt. As mentioned in the previous 
advisory, Elida is forecast to turn northwestward during the next 
24 h as it moves through a break in the subtropical ridge caused by 
a large mid- to upper-level trough west of California. Some of the 
track guidance shows a more northward motion after 72 h, which 
could verify if Elida stays vertically stacked as it weakens. 
However, this is considered unlikely due to the expected shear, and 
the new forecast track shows a continued northwestward track after 
the cyclone shears apart. With that being said, the guidance 
envelope has shifted significantly eastward at 120 h, and the 120 h 
point is near the left edge of the guidance. If that trend 
continues, some adjustments may be required in later forecasts.
 
Elida has about 36 h of favorable conditions left before it reaches 
decreasing sea surface temperatures. The intensity guidance 
continues to forecast steady intensification during this time, but 
as before the current structure is a caution flag about how much 
strengthening might occur. The new intensity forecast shows a peak 
intensity of 75 kt in 36 h. Beyond that time, cooler waters, 
increasing vertical shear, and dry air entrainment should cause 
steady weakening, and Elida is expected to become a remnant low by 
120 h. The new intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the 
intensity guidance.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/2100Z 15.8N 118.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  17/0600Z 16.2N 119.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  17/1800Z 17.1N 121.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  18/0600Z 18.3N 122.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  18/1800Z 19.7N 123.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  19/0600Z 21.3N 124.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  19/1800Z 23.0N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  20/1800Z 26.1N 127.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  21/1800Z 29.0N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Beven