Tropical Weather Discussion

SPECIAL FEATURES

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends from near Fort Myers, Florida, to the central Bay of Campeche. Near storm-force winds are present offshore Veracruz, Mexico, where seas are up to 20 ft. A broader area of gale force winds and very rough seas are present behind the front offshore Mexico from Tampico to the central Bay of Campeche. These gales will continue into Mon morning, before the cold front clears the basin and winds begin to diminish. Frequent gusts in excess of gale force are occurring within 60 nm of the NE Gulf coast, with other areas behind the front having widespread strong to near gale-force north winds, along with rough seas. Peak seas may exceed 25 ft in the Bay of Campeche late tonight and Sun, with rough seas prevailing across portions of the basin through Tue.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N77W to the central Florida coast. The front will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun morning, and from near 31N70W to western Cuba by early Mon morning, then stall and dissipate through mid week. Frequent gusts to gale force will follow the front later tonight over the waters north of 29N and west of 75W, and continue through Sun. Very rough seas will be present where these higher winds are present.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details.

MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 09N27W. The ITCZ then extends from 09N27W to 11N39W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 11N and E of 24W.

GULF OF AMERICA

See Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning in effect for portions of the area.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present in the SE basin and the eastern Bay of Campeche, along and ahead of a cold front that extends from near Fort Myers, Florida, to the central Bay of Campeche. Away from convection and ahead of the front, moderate or weaker east winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the cold front will slow down as it reaches from the Florida Straits to Merida, Mexico by early Sun, then drift to the southeast of the Gulf through Tue as it weakens. Storm force winds off Veracruz will diminish to strong gale this evening, then persist over the SW Gulf through Sun night. Gales will diminish in the west-central Gulf by early Sun, and frequent gusts to gale force elsewhere behind the front should diminish by this evening. Strong NE winds and rough seas will persist elsewhere north of the front into early next week. Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build over the lower Mississippi Valley behind the front, promoting fresh NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf into mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Deep-layer moisture and upper level divergence is inducing numerous moderate convection across the western basin, W of 78W. To the east, mainly fresh trades dominate, with locally strong winds offshore Colombia and western Venezuela. Moderate seas dominate the basin.

For the forecast, as a cold front moves across the Western Atlantic and the Gulf of America, the pressure gradient has relaxed across the basin, supporting moderate to fresh winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough will continue to affect the NW Caribbean tonight. Moisture associated with this feature will merge with the cold front moving across the Gulf of America later this weekend. The front will likely reach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel by Tue then dissipate. Large seas associated with the front will impact the Yucatan Channel with hazardous conditions possible there.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

See Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning for waters offshore NE Florida.

Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is ongoing across the NW Bahamas and between the Bahamas and South Florida, ahead of the cold front moving eastward and off the coast. More scattered moderate to isolated strong convection extends from 19N to 26N between 45W and 52W, in association with a deep-layer trough that is noted N of a weak stationary front that extends from 31N49W to 28N62W. Further to the southeast, a broad area of numerous moderate convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 38W and 53W, in association with another deep-layer trough.

With the cold front extending from 31N72W to near Fort Pierce, Florida, strong to near gale-force N winds are present N of the boundary, with building rough seas. A trough axis extends from 20N to 30N along 38W, with fresh E winds and rough seas N of 25N between 35W and 45W in association with it. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas dominate the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, weak frontal troughs east of 70W will continue to dissipate this evening, ahead of a strong cold front which extends from 31N77W to near Fort Pierce, Florida. The front will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun morning, and from near 31N70W to western Cuba by early Mon morning, then stall and dissipate into mid week. Strong to near- gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front affecting mainly the waters west of 65W through Tue, although seas will linger through much of the week. Frequent gusts to gale force are forecast behind the front north of 29N and west of 74W tonight through Sun.

SPECIAL FEATURES

Hurricane Trudy is centered near 17.5N 105.0W at 17/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are 34 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the center. A general NW motion is forecast to continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy will pass near the coast of southwestern and west- central Mexico tonight into Sunday. Some strengthening remains possible this evening, followed by weakening beginning by Sunday. Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward toward west-central Mexico through the weekend. These swells will cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Trudy is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 12 inches along and near the southwest Mexican coast in Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Trudy.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building southward through Mexico is forcing powerful gale force winds through the Gulf of Tehunatepec, where very rough seas have built. Winds tonight and Sun will be near storm-force, with seas as high as 20 ft. Gales and very rough seas will prevail Sun night through Tue night.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details.

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N95W and from 12N102W to 05N128W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N E of 95W and from 01N to 08N between 105W and 122W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Trudy and the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Away from Hurricane Trudy and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate to locally fresh winds are present in the Gulf of California. Seas in these waters are 2-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, Hurricane Trudy is near 17.5N 105.0W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Trudy will move to 18.6N 105.6W Sun morning, 19.8N 106.4W Sun afternoon, and 20.7N 107.1W Mon morning. Trudy will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.0N 107.6W Mon afternoon, be near 21.2N 108.1W Tue morning, and 21.5N 108.7W Tue afternoon. Trudy will weaken to a remnant low just south of Baja California Sur Wed afternoon. Strong high pressure building southward through Mexico is forcing powerful gale force winds through the Gulf of Tehunatepec, where very rough seas have built. Winds tonight and Sun will be near storm-force, with seas as high as 20 ft. Gales and very rough seas will prevail Sun night through Tue night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the latter half of next week while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the eastern and central portions of the East Pacific. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low over the next 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gale-force gap winds NW of the region in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are filtering southward, leading to fresh N winds well offshore Guatemala, and seas are building to 5 to 7 ft. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in decaying long-period SW swell are also pressure S of the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and mainly 3 to 6 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, a powerful early-season gap wind episode in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will send strong N winds and very rough seas to waters offshore Guatemala into Sun night, with rough seas then continuing through Tue. Large SW swell will gradually decay south of the equator into tonight.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The pressure gradient between the monsoon trough and high pressure in the north Pacific is leading to a broad area of moderate to locally fresh trades N of 06N and W of 120W. Seas in these waters are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh S winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are found S of the monsoon trough, S of 120W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, little change in winds is expected through early next week. Large SW swell near the Equator will decay tonight. A weak cold front will move S of 30N by early Tue, bringing fresh to locally strong N winds Tue into Wed N of 28N, with rough to very rough seas N of 20N Tue into Thu.